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价差交易比方向交易安全多了，需要的保证金也低。业余选手不懂价差，对这种可靠但比较慢的交易没兴趣。市场上有很多关于价差的书，但是都写的不好，这说明专业人士在这个领域很封闭，把业余选手都赶出去了。这个市场的好处很多，所以专业人士赚了很多钱，完全没有必要靠写书赚钱。这看起来好像是内部人士贴了一个告示，外人莫入。
MITMENTS OF TRADERS The modity Futures Trading mission collects reports from brokers on the positions of traders and releases their summaries to the public。 Those COT （mitments of traders） reports are among the best sources of information on what the smart money is doing in the futures markets。 COT reports reveal positions of three groups： hedgers； big traders； and small traders。 How do they know who is who？ Hedgers identify themselves to brokers because that entitles them to several advantages； such as lower margin rates。 Big traders are identified by holding the number of contracts above “reporting requirements；” set by the government。 Whoever is not a hedger or a big trader is a small trader。
持仓量 期货交易委员会会从经纪商那里得到报告，内容是交易者的仓位，然后公布给大众。持仓量报告是最好的信息，它告诉我们聪明的钱在哪里。持仓量报告显示了3个人群的仓位：对冲者，大户，散户。他们是如何知道谁是谁的？对冲者向经纪商表明身份因为有几个好处，比如保证金低。大户则是因为他们的仓位大，达到了报告的要求，政府要求披露。既不是对冲者，又不是大户，那么就是散户。
In the old days； big traders used to be the smart money。 Today； the markets are bigger； the reporting requirements much higher； and big traders are likely to be modity funds； most of them not much smarter than the run…of…the…mill trader。 Hedgers are today’s smart money but understanding their positions isn’t as easy as it seems。
过去，大户就是聪明的钱。现在，市场变大了，报告要求披露的仓位也更大，大户一般成了商品基金，他们大多比一般交易者聪明很多。现在对冲者是聪明钱，但是很难去琢磨他们的仓位。
For example； a COT report may show that in a certain market； hedgers hold 70％ of shorts。 A beginner who thinks this is bearish may be pletely off the mark without knowing that normally hedgers hold 90％ of shorts in that market； making the 70％ stance wildly bullish。 Savvy COT analysts pare current positions to historical norms and look for situations where hedgers； or the smart money； and small traders； many of whom are gamblers and losers； are dead set against each other。 If one group is heavily short while the other is just as heavily long； which one would you like to join？ If you find that in a certain market the smart money is overwhelmingly on one side； while the small specs are mobbing the other； it is time to use technical analysis to look for entries on the side of hedgers。
比如，持仓量报告显示对冲者持有70％的空头仓位。新手可能觉得这是空头市场，但是却不知道在正常的空头市场对冲者持有90％的空头仓位，70％应该是看多了。聪明的持仓量分析者会对比历史正常仓位，寻找机构，对冲者，聪明的钱，散户，他们中间有很多赌徒和输家，他们互相攻击。如果一个人群强烈做空，另外一个人群强烈做多，你应该加入那边？如果你发现在市场中聪明钱全部聚集在一边，然而小钱都聚集在另一边，这时你要用技术分析找进场点。
SUPPLY AND DEMAND MARKETS In futures； there are two types of bull and bear markets： supply…driven and demand…driven。 Supply…driven markets tend to be fast and furious； whereas demand…driven markets tend to be quiet and slow。 Why？ Think of any modity； say coffee； which grows in Africa and South America。
供应和需求 在期货中，有2种上涨和下跌：供应推动的和需求推动的。供应推动的市场一般快，激烈，然而需求推动的市场一般慢，安静。为什么？想想任何商品，比如咖啡，产地在非洲和南非。
Changes in demand e slowly； thanks to the conservatism of human nature。 The demand for coffee can go up only if drinking bees more popular； with a second espresso machine in every little bar。 The demand can fall only if coffee drinking bees less popular； which may happen in a deteriorating economy or in response to a health fad。 Demand…driven markets move at a leisurely pace。
需求变化慢，感谢保守主义。只有当喝咖啡变得流行起来，每个咖啡店的咖啡机增加了，需求才会上涨。当经济下滑，人们注重健康时，喝咖啡就不再流行了，这是需求就下降了。需求推动的市场波动悠闲。
Now imagine that a major coffee growing area is hit by a hurricane or a freeze。 Suddenly the world supply of coffee is rumored to be reduced by 10％ and prices shoot through the roof； cutting off marginal consumers and rising to the point where supply and demand are in balance。 Supply…driven markets are very volatile。 Imagine torrential rains in the cocoa…producing areas of Africa； or a new OPEC policy sharply curtailing oil supply； or a general strike in a leading copper…mining country。 When the supply of a modity is reduced and rumors of further damage swirl； the trend shoots up； reallocating tight supplies to those best able to afford them。
想在想象咖啡主产地被飓风或霜冻袭击了。突然，全球的咖啡供应少了10％，价格冲上了屋顶，上涨到一个供需平衡。供应推动的市场波动很大。想象一下可可产地非洲的急雨，石油输出国组织突然宣布限制石油供应，一个将军袭击了一个主要产铜国家。当商品供应突然减少时，更严重的谣言就来了，趋势就猛涨，重新分配供应。
Every futures trader must be aware of key supply factors in his market and keep an eye on them； such as the weather during the critical growing and harvesting months in agricultural modities。 Trend traders in the futures markets tend to look for supply…driven markets； while swing traders do better in demand…driven markets。
每个期货交易者必须明白市场的供应因素，要盯紧点，比如农作物产区成长期，收割月的天气。期货市场的趋势骄傲以这一般寻找供应推动的市场，然而波段交易者在需求推动的市场中表现良好。
The United States grain markets often have price spikes during the spring and summer planting and growing seasons as dry spells； floods； and pests threaten supplies。 Traders say that a farmer loses his crop three times before harvesting it。 Once the harvest is in and the supply is known； demand drives the markets。 Demand…driven markets have narrower channels； making profit targets smaller。 Channels have to be redrawn and trading tactics adjusted as seasons change。 A lazy trader wonders why his tools stopped working。 A smart trader gets out a new set of tools for the season and puts old ones in storage until the next year。
在美国的谷物市场，春夏播种，生长时，只要干旱，洪水，害虫影响了供应，期货价格就往上刺出，像钉子一样。交易者说农民在收割前就把自己的作物亏损了3次。一旦收割期到了，供应明确了，需求就会推动市场。需求推动的市场通道很窄，利润目标很小。在季节变化时，要重新调节通道的参数和交易战术。懒惰的交易者搞不懂为何他的工具不工作了。聪明的交易者为季节变化准备了新工具，老工具明年再用。
FLOOR AND CEILING The fundamental analysis of futures is more straight… forward than that of stocks。 Most analysts monitor supplies since demand changes very slowly。 What is the planted acreage？ What are the warehouse stocks？ What is the weather forecast for the growing areas？ Fundamentals put a floor underneath most； though not all； modities。 They also have a natural ceiling above which they almost never rise。
地板价和天花板价 期货的基本面分析师比股票直接。大部分分析师都是观察供应，因为需求变的慢。种了多少亩？仓库在哪里？成长期的天气如何？基本派给大多数商品定了地板价。他们还有一个永远涨不到的天花板价。
The floor depends on the cost of production。 When the market price of a modity； be it gol