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即时的数据会提高交易水平吗？对少数人来说，是的；对有些人来说，也许是的；对大部分人来说，不是的。看着屏幕上的即时波动，一个交易者朋友说，就像是坐在独臂的强盗面前。钱给光了，你就惨了。
Trading with live charts looks deceptively easy； while in fact it is one of the fastest games on the planet。 Buy at 10：05 A。M。； watch the price rise a few ticks； and take a couple of hundred dollars off the table by 10：15。 Repeat several times a day； and go home at 4 with thousands of dollars and no open positions。 Sleep like a baby and return in the morning。 Trouble is； you need perfect reflexes to do that。 If you pause to think； delay taking a profit； or quibble accepting a loss； you’re dead。
看着即时波动交易，看起来似乎很容易，其实这是这个地球上最快的游戏。早上10：05分，看着价格涨了一点点，到了10：15分，已经赚了几百元了。每天这样做几次，下午4点回家时就有了几千元，也没有过夜仓位。晚上像孩子一样安心睡觉，第2天早上又去了。问题是，你需要极好的反映能力。如果想的慢，没有及时兑现利润，或提前止损，你就死定了。
Most successful day…traders are men in their early 20s。 I’ve met very few successful day…traders over 30。 There are exceptions； of course … a friend in her 70s is a fantastic day…trader； but she is an exception who confirms the rule。 This game requires lightning…fast reflexes； as well as a certain thoughtless capacity to jump； that few of us preserve past the age of 30。
大部分成功的日内交易者都是20出头的男人。我见过少数30多岁的成功日内交易者。需要有期望，这是肯定的——我有一个70多岁的朋友也是出色的日内交易者，但她是特例。这个游戏需要闪电一样快的反应能力，还要有想都不想的出场能力，很少有人在30岁以后还有这个能力。
Beginners do not need live data because they have to put all their attention into learning to trade with daily and weekly charts。 Once you start pulling money out of the markets； it might be a good idea to apply your new skills to intraday charts。 When longer…term charts give you a buy or a sell signal； use live data not to day…trade but to dance into or out of positions。
新手并不需要即时波动数据，因为他们的重点是学习利用日线图和周线图进行交易。一旦你开始从市场赚钱了，再利用日线的波动变动测试你的新技巧。当长线图告诉你买卖信号时，利用即时波动，不是为了做日内交易，而是找买卖点。
Once you decide to use live data； make sure it’s real and not delayed。 Most exchanges charge monthly fees for real…time data； while the Internet is full of websites offering free data； delayed by 20 minutes。 That delay does not interfere with the entertainment value； but trading with it is suicidal。 If you need real…time data； be sure to get the best。
当你决定了用即时波动数据，一定要保证是真实的，而不是延时的。大部分交易所的即时波动数据是收费的，互联网上有很多免费的，一般延时20分钟。这种延时用来娱乐是可以的，但做交易就是自杀。如果你需要即时波动数据，一定要找到最好的。
ANALYSIS AND TRADING
分析和交易
Markets generate vast volumes of information： annual and quarterly reports； earnings estimates； corporate insiders’ reports； industry group studies； technology forecasts； weekly； daily； and intraday charts； technical indicators； trading volume； opinions in chat rooms； the never… ending discussion circles on the Internet。 With so much data； you soon realize your analysis can never be plete。
市场会制造大量的信息：年度和季度报告，收益，公司内部报告，工业集团报告，技术预测，周线图，日线图，分钟图，技术指标，交易量，聊天室观点，互联网上无穷无尽的讨论。这么多数据，你会无法研究完的。
Some traders who have lost money fall into paralysis from analysis。 They develop a quaint notion that if they analyze more data； they’ll stop losing and bee winners。 You can recognize them by their beautiful charts and shelves crammed with stock reports。 They will show you indicator signals in the middle of any chart； but when you ask them what they will do at the right edge； they only mumble because they do not trade。
很多交易者因为分析而亏钱。他们有个古怪的想法，他们以为分析的越多，他们就不会亏钱，就会成为赢家。你可以通过他们美丽的图表以及满柜子的投资报告来发现他们。他们会告诉你图中的指标信号，但是如果你问他们该怎么办时，他们会支支吾吾地说他们并不交易。
Analysts are paid to be right； traders are paid to be profitable。 Those are two different goals； calling for different temperaments。 Institutions tend to separate traders and analysts into different departments。 Private traders have no such luxury。
分析师拿工资是为了正确，交易者拿工资是为了赚钱。这是2个不同的目标，需要不同的素质。机构会把交易者和分析师分到不同的部门。个人交易者没有这样的奢侈条件。
Analysis quickly reaches the point of diminishing returns。 The goal is not to be plete but to develop a decision…making process and back it up with money management。 You need to develop several analytic screens to reduce a huge volume of market information to a manageable size。
分析很快就能减少亏损。目的不是为了没有亏损，是为了更好地做决策，帮助做好资金管理。你需要发展一套分析方法，降低大量的市场分析工作，做到可以管理的地步。
Fundamental Analysis
基本面分析
Fundamental analysts predict price movements on the basis of supply and demand。 In stocks； they study supply and demand for pany products。 In futures they research supply and demand for modities。
基本面分析就是利用供需原理来预测价格的运动。如果是股票，就研究公司产品的供需。如果是期货，就研究商品的供需。
Has a pany announced a new technological breakthrough？ An expansion abroad？ A new strategic partnership？ A new chief executive？ Anything that happens to the business can influence the supply of its products and their costs。 Almost everything that happens in society can influence the demand。
是不是指公司宣布了新的技术性突破？在海外设置了分支机构？新的合作伙伴策略？新的执行总裁？任何关于生意的事都有可能影响产品的供需和成本。几乎社会上的任何事都会影响需求。
Fundamental analysis is hard because the importance of different factors changes with the passage of time。 For example； during an economic expansion； fundamental analysts are likely to focus on growth rates； but during a recession； on the safety of dividends。 A dividend may seem like a quaint relic in a go…go bull market； but when the chips are down the ultimate test of a stock is how much ine it generates。 A fundamental analyst must keep an eye on the crowd； as it shifts its attention from market share to technological innovation to whatever else preoccupies it at the moment。 Fundamental analysts study values； but the relationship between values and prices is not direct。 It’s that mile…long rubber band all over again。
基本面分析很难，因为随着时间的进行，很多不同的因素都在变化。比如，在经济发展期，基本面分析师会关注增长率，但是在萧条期，又关注分红。在不断上涨的牛市，分红就像是古怪的遗留物，但是，到了熊市，它又成了测试股票的方法。基本面分析师必须关注大众，因为大众的注意力会转变，从市场份额转变到技术革新，再转变到其它方面。基本面分析师研究估值，但是价值和价格之间的关系并不明确。价值和价格之间有1英里长的橡皮筋，2者总是在变化。
The job of a fundamental analyst in the futures markets isn’t much easier。 How do you read the actions of the Federal Reserve； with its great power over interest rates and the economy？ How do you analyze weather reports during the critical growing seasons in the grain markets？ How do you estimate carryover stocks and weather prospects in the Southern versus the Northern Hemispheres which are six month