按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
How can we translate the lessons of AA into the language of trading？
如何把匿名酗酒者聚会的课程翻译成交易的语言呢？
A losing trader is in denial。 His equity is shrinking； but he continues to jump into trades without analyzing what is going wrong。 He keeps switching between markets the way an alcoholic switches between whiskey and cheap wine。 An amateur whose mind isn’t strong enough to accept a small loss will eventually take the mother of all losses。 A gaping hole in a trading account hurts self…esteem。 A single huge loss or a series of bad losses smash a trader against his rock bottom。 Most beginners collapse and wash out。 The lifetime of an average speculator is measured in months； not years。
一个亏损的交易者不接受现实。他的资金在缩水，但他继续进行交易，并不分析哪里错了。他不停地换市场，就像酗酒者在威士忌和便宜的葡萄酒之间换来换去一样。业余选手的思想意识还不知道小亏损最终会变成大亏损。交易账户的大洞会伤害自尊心。一次巨大的亏损或一系列的亏损会严重伤害一个交易者，打破他的底线。大部分新手崩溃，退出了。一个投机者的生命是用月来度量的，不是年。
Those who survive fall into two groups。 Some return to their old ways； just like alcoholics crawl into a bar after surviving a bout of delirium。 They toss more money into their accounts and bee customers of vendors who sell magical trading systems。 They continue to gamble； only now their hands shake from anxiety and fear when they try to pull the trigger。
生存下来的人分为2组。一些人回到过去的老方式，就像酗酒者在疯狂后又回到酒吧。他们花更多的钱，成为销售魔力交易系统生意人的客户了。他们继续赌博，在扣扳机的时候他们的手由于焦急和恐惧而抖的厉害。
A minority of traders that hit rock bottom decide to change。 Recovery is a slow and solitary process。 Charles Mackay； the author of one of the best books on crowd psychology； wrote almost two centuries ago that men go mad in crowds； but e to their senses slowly； and one by one。 I wish we had an organization for recovering traders； the way recovering alcoholics have AA。 We don’t because trading is so petitive。 Members of AA strive for sobriety together； but a meeting of recovering traders could easily be poisoned by envy and showing off。 Markets are such cutthroat places that we don’t form mutual support groups or find sponsors。 Some opportunists hold themselves out as traders’ coaches； but most make me shudder at their sharkiness。 If we had a traders’ organization； I’d call it Losers Anonymous （LA）。 The name is blunt； but that’s fine。 After all； Alcoholics Anonymous does not call itself Drinkers Anonymous。 A harsh name helps traders face their impulsivity and self…sabotage。 Since we do not have LA； you’ll have to walk on the road to recovery alone。 I wrote this book to help you along the way。
有少数的交易者碰到底线以后决定改变自己。恢复过程是漫长和孤独的。查尔斯·麦凯写了一本关于大众心理的书，这是最好的书， 这本书大概是200年前写的，关于人在大众中的疯狂，但是一个一个的慢慢恢复到理性。我希望像匿名酗酒者聚会一样，我们也有一个组织帮助交易者恢复。我们没有这样的组织是因为交易就是竞争。匿名酗酒者聚会是为了一起戒酒，但是交易者聚会可能会变成嫉妒和炫耀。市场是割喉的场所，我们无法做到互相帮助或互相鼓励。有些教练提供的机会会帮助交易者，但大多数的鲨鱼还是让我不寒而栗。如果我们有交易者的组织，我可以称为匿名输家聚会。名字很犀利，但很好。犀利的名字让交易者面对冲动和自毁。由于我们并没有匿名输家聚会，你就得自己上路恢复了。我写这本书就是在路上帮助你的。
Businessman’s Risk vs。 Loss
生意人的风险对亏损
Years ago； when I began my recovery from losing； each morning I held what I called a Losers Anonymous meeting for one。 I’d e into the office； turn on my quote screen； and while it was warming up I’d say； “Good morning； my name is Alex； and I am a loser。 I have it in me to do serious damage to my account。 I’ve done it before。 My only goal for today is to go home without a loss。” When the screen was up； I’d begin trading； following the plan written down the night before while the markets were closed。
多年前，当我从亏损中恢复时，每天早晨，我都会举行匿名输家聚会，只有1个人。我走进办公室，打开波动屏幕，启动时，我会说：“早上好，我的名字叫亚历山大，我是一个输家。我把自己的账户严重摧毁了。过去也干过。我今天唯一的目标是回家时没有亏损。”当屏幕好了时，我开始交易，按照头天晚上写好的计划交易。
I can immediately hear an objection … what do you mean； go home without a loss？ It is impossible to make money every day。 What happens if you buy something； and it goes straight down … in other words； you’ve bought the top tick of the day？ What if you sell something short and it immediately rallies？
我立刻听见有人反对——你什么意思，回家时没有亏损？不可能每天赚钱的。如果你买了什么，它突然下跌怎么办——换句话说，你买在最高点怎么办？如果你卖掉什么，它立刻上涨怎么办？
We must draw a clear line between a loss and a businessman’s risk。 A businessman’s risk is a small dip in equity。 A loss goes through that limit。 As a trader； I am in the business of trading and must take normal business risks； but I cannot afford losses。
我们必须在亏损和生意人的风险之间划一条清晰的线。生意人的风险就是资金的少量减少。亏损就是指亏的更多。作为交易者，我做交易的时候必须接受商业风险，但不能接受亏损。
Imagine you’re not trading but running a fruit and vegetable stand。 You take a risk each time you buy a crate of tomatoes。 If your customers do not buy them； that crate will rot on you。 That’s a normal business risk … you expect to sell most of your inventory； but some fruit and vegetables will spoil。 As long as you buy carefully； keeping the unsold spoiled fruit to a small percentage of your daily volume； your business stays profitable。
假如说你不是交易，而是摆摊做水果和蔬菜生意。你每买一篮子西红柿都要承担风险。如果你的客户不买，亏损就是你的。这是正常的商业风险——你希望卖掉你的库存，但是一些水果和蔬菜会坏掉。只要你认真做事，把要坏的水果控制在比较小的比例，你的生意就会赚钱。
Imagine that a wholesaler brings a tractor…trailer full of exotic fruit to your stand and tries to sell you the entire load。 He says that you can earn more in the next two days than you made in the previous six months。 It sounds great … but what if your customers don’t buy that exotic fruit？ A rotting tractor…trailer load can hurt your business and endanger its survival。 It’s no longer a businessman’s risk … it’s a loss。
假如说批发商开来一卡车外国水果到你的摊位，准备全部卖给你。他说你未来2天赚的钱要比过去半年都多。听起来不错——但是如果你的客户不买外国水果怎么办？一卡车的水果都烂掉，那真的是伤害生意，危及生存。这不是生意人的风险——这是亏损。
Money management rules draw a straight line between a business…man’s risk and a loss； as you will see later in this book。
资金管理的原则会在生意人的风险和亏损之间画一条线，你会在本书后面看到。
Some traders have argued that my AA approach is too negative。 A young woman in Singapore told me she believed in positive thinking and thought of herself as a winner。 She could afford to be positive because discipline was imposed on her from the outside； by the manager of the bank for which she traded。 Another winner who argued with me was a lady from Texas in her seventies； a wildly successful trader of stock index futures。 She was very religious and viewed herself as a steward of money。 Each morning she got up early and prayed long and hard。 Then she drove to the office and traded the