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What is the reality behind the moving averages； and what do they measure？
均线后面到底是什么，它们计算的是什么？
Each price is a momentary consensus of value among market participants； a snapshot of the market crowd at the moment of a trade。 What if you show me a snapshot of your friend and ask whether he is an optimist or a pessimist； a bull or a bear？ It is hard to tell from a single photo。 If you take his snapshot from the same position for 10 days in a row and bring them to a lab； you can get a posite photo。 When 10 pictures are super…imposed upon one another； the typical features stand out； while the atypical fade away。 If you start updating that posite each day； you’ll have a moving average of your friend’s mood。 If you lay a string of posite photos side by side； it will be clear whether your friend is being happier or sadder。
每个价格都是市场参与者在某一时刻对价值的一致认同，是市场大众在交易时的快照。如果你把你朋友的快照给我，问我他是乐观者，还是悲观者，是多头，还是空头，结果如何？很难从一张照片来判断。如果你在同一个位置连续10天拍照，把它们拿到实验室，你会得到合成照片。如果把10张图放在一起，典型的特征就会出现，非典型的特征就消失了。如果你开始每天合成，你会得到你朋友的平均移动情绪。如果你把合成的照片一张一张地摆放，你会很清晰地看见你的朋友是高兴还是难过。
A moving average is a posite photograph of the market。 It adds new prices as they occur and drops old ones。 A rising moving average shows that the crowd is being more optimistic … bullish。 A falling moving average shows that the crowd is being more pessimistic … bearish。
均线是市场的连续合成照。它会自动计算新价格，并去掉老价格。上涨的均线表明大众越来越乐观——多头。下跌的均线表明大众越来越悲观——空头。
A moving average responds not only to the data but to how we construct it。 We must make several decisions to help separate the message of our moving average from the construction noise。 First； we need to decide what data we’ll use。 We need to select the width of our time window … wider for catching longer trends； narrower for catching minor ones。 Finally； we need to choose the type of moving average。
均线不但对数据有反映，对我们的设置也有反映。我们必须把均线反映的信息从设置的噪音里提炼出来。首先，我们要决定使用什么数据。我们要选择时间周期的宽度——宽度越宽，越有可能抓住大趋势，宽度太窄，只能抓住小趋势。最后，我们需要选择均线类型。
What Data to Average？ Traders who rely on daily and weekly charts usually apply moving averages to closing prices。 This makes sense； because they reflect the final consensus of value； the most important price of the day。
采用什么数据？利用日线和周线图的交易者通常用收盘价。这是合理的，因为它反映了市场对价值的最终一致看法，是当天最重要的价格。
The closing price of a five…minute or an hourly bar has no such special meaning。 Day…traders are better off averaging not closing prices； but an average price of each bar。 For example； they can average Open＋High＋Low＋ Close of each bar； divided by four； or High＋Low＋Close divided by three。
5分钟或1个小时的收盘价就没有这个意义。日内交易者最好不要用收盘价，而是竹线的均价。比如，他们可以取开盘价＋最高价＋最低价＋收盘价，除以4，或者是除以3。或者是最高价＋最低价＋收盘价，除以3。
We can apply moving averages to indicators； such as Force Index （see below）。 A raw Force Index reflects price changes and volume for the day。 Averaging produces a smoother plot and reveals a longer…term trend of Force Index。
我们可以把均价放到到指标上，比如力量指数（请看后面）。力量指数反映当天的价格变化和成交量变化。平均的方法可以提供平缓的图，利用力量指数反映长期的趋势。
How Long a Moving Average？ Moving averages help identify trends。 A rising MA encourages you to maintain longs； whereas a falling MA tells you to hold shorts。 The wider the time window； the smoother is a moving average。 That benefit has a cost。 The longer a moving average； the slower it responds to trend changes。 The shorter a moving average； the better it tracks prices； but the more subject it is to whipsaws； temporary deviations from the main trend。 If you make your moving average very long； it will miss important reversals by a wide margin。 Shorter MAs are more sensitive to trend changes； but those shorter than 10 bars defeat the purpose of a trend…following tool。
均线的时间参数要多长？均线帮助确认趋势。上涨的均线鼓舞你持有多头仓位，下跌的均线告诉你持有空头仓位。时间窗口越宽，均线越平滑。这个好处是有成本的。时间参数越长，均线对趋势变化的反应越慢。时间参数越短，均线跟踪趋势就越好，但是会受到主趋势的洗盘，暂时的波动的影响。如果你的时间参数特别长，它会错过重要的反转，亏损资金。时间参数小的均线对趋势变化很敏感，比10日短的均线能打败趋势跟踪工具。
At the time I wrote Trading for a Living； I was using 13…bar MAs； but in recent years I switched to longer moving averages to catch more important trends and avoid whipsaws。 To analyze weekly charts； start with a 26…week moving average； representing half a year’s worth of data。 Try to shorten that number and see whether you can do it without sacrificing the smoothness of your MA。 On the daily charts； start with a 22…day MA； reflecting roughly the number of trading days in a month； and see whether you can make it shorter。 Whatever length you decide to use； be sure to test it on your own data。 If you track just a handful of markets； you’ll have enough time to try different lengths of moving averages until you get smoothly flowing lines。
当我写《以交易为生》的时候，我用13日均线，但是最近几年，我改到更长的时间，以往抓住更重要的趋势，避免洗盘。要分析周线图，用26周均线，代表了半年的数据。你可以试试把时间参数变小，看看在不牺牲均线平滑的情况下，你是否能做好。在日线图上，用22日均线，大概反映了一个月的天数，你可以看看是否能把时间设的更小。不管你用什么时间参数，一定要用你自己的数据测试。如果你跟踪很多市场，你要有足够的时间测试不同时间参数，直到你找到平滑的均线。
The width of any indicator time window is best expressed in bars rather than days。 The puter doesn’t know whether you are analyzing daily； monthly； or hourly charts； it sees only bars。 Whatever we say about a daily MA applies to the weekly or the monthly。 It’s better to call it a 22…bar MA rather than a 22…day MA。
时间参数的设置最好用竹线，不要用天。电脑不知道你是在分析日线图，周线图或小时图，电脑只知道竹线。不管我们说的是日均线，周均线或月均线，最好还是叫做22条均线，而不是22天均线。
Mathematically savvy traders can look into using adaptive moving averages whose length changes in response to market conditions； as advocated by John Ehlers； Tushar Chande； and Perry Kaufman。 Ehlers’ latest book； Rocket Science for Traders； delves into adapting all indicators to current market conditions。
聪明的交易者可以使用自适应均线，它的时间参数随时市场环境变化而变化。约翰·埃勒斯，图莎·钱德，佩里·考夫曼支持这个方法。埃勒斯的最后一本书《交易者的火箭科学》就研究了如何让所有指标适应目前的市场状况。
What Type of Moving Average？ A simple MA adds up prices in its time window and divides the sum by the width of that window。 For example； for a 10…day simple MA of closing prices； add up closing prices for the past 10 days and divide the sum by 10。 The trouble with a simple MA is that each price affects it twice … when it es in and when it drops out。 A high new value pushes up the moving average； giving a buy signal。 This is good； we want our MAs to respond to new prices。 The trouble is