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ptick of MACD…Histogram shows that bulls are stronger than they were at the previous bar； and a downtick shows that bears are gaining。 Those upticks and downticks provide minor buy and sell signals； but we shouldn’t read too much into them。 Markets do not move in straight lines； and it’s normal for MACD…Histogram to keep ticking up and down。
最强的信号 MACD柱给你2种信号。一种是普通的，每个竹线就是——MACD柱的坡度。MACD柱的上涨表明多头比前一个竹线强，下跌则表明空头强。这些上涨和下跌提供了小的买卖信号，但我们不能太认真。市场不是走直线，MACD柱上上下下是正常的。
The other signal occurs rarely； only a couple of times per year on the daily charts of most markets； but it’s worth waiting for because it is the strongest signal in technical analysis。 That signal is a divergence between the peaks and bottoms of price and MACD…Histogram。 A divergence occurs when the trend of price highs and lows goes one way and the trend of tops and bottoms in MACD…Histogram goes the opposite way。 Those patterns take several weeks or even more than a month to develop on the daily charts。
其它信号很少发生，大部分市场日线图上每年才产生几次，但是值得等待，因为这是技术分析中最强的信号。这个信号是价格的顶底和MACD柱的背离。这个背离发生在价格的趋势达到顶和底，而MACD柱的顶和底则相反。在日线图上，这样的模式需要多周或一个多月才会形成。
A bullish divergence occurs when prices trace a bottom； rally； and then sink to a new low。 At the same time MACD…Histogram traces a different pattern。 When it rallies from its first bottom； that rally lifts it above the zero line； “breaking the back of the bear。” When prices sink to a new low； MACD…Histogram declines to a more shallow bottom。 At that point； prices are lower； but the bottom of MACD…Histogram is higher； showing that bears are weaker and the downtrend is ready for a reversal。 MACD…Histogram gives a buy signal when it ticks up from its second bottom。
看涨背离发生在价格达到底部，反弹，然后创造新低。同时MACD柱跟踪到不同的模式。当它从第一个底部反弹，反弹把它带到0轴以上，“打破了空头的脊梁”。当价格下跌到新低时，MACD柱跌到比较浅的底部。在这点，价格更低，但是MACD柱的底部更高，表明空头弱了，下跌趋势要反转。MACD柱从第二个底部反弹时提供了买入信号。
Occasionally； the second bottom is followed by a third。 This is why traders must use stops and proper money management。 There are no certainties in the markets； only probabilities。 Even a reliable pattern such as a divergence of MACD…Histogram fails occasionally； which is why we must exit if prices fall below their second bottom。 We must preserve our trading capital and reenter when MACD…Histogram ticks up from its third bottom； as long as it is higher than the first。
偶尔，第2个底部以后还有第3个底部。这是交易者必须止损和资金管理的原因。市场中没有确定的事，只有可能性。偶尔，MACD柱背离这样的可靠模式也会失败，这就是在价格跌破第2个底必须出场的原因。我们必须保留资金，等MACD柱从第3个底再次上涨时再次进场，底部还要比第1个底部高。
A bearish divergence occurs when prices rise to a new high； decline； and then rise to a higher peak。 MACD…Histogram gives the first sign of trouble when it breaks below its zero line during the decline from its first peak。 When prices reach a higher high； MACD…Histogram rises to a much lower high。 It shows that bulls are weaker； and prices are rising simply out of inertia and are ready to reverse。
看跌背离发生在价格上涨到一个新高，下跌，然后又涨到更高的顶峰。MACD柱在价格从第一个顶峰时下跌到0轴以下，发出第一个麻烦的信号。当价格达到更高的高度，MACD柱上涨到很低的高度。这表明多头很弱，价格只是走出惯性，准备要反转。
The Hound of the Baskervilles MACD…Histogram offers traders what x…rays offer doctors； showing the strength or weakness of the bone below the surface of the skin。 Bulls or bears may appear powerful when prices reach a new extreme； but a divergence of MACD…Histogram shows that the dominant party is being weak and prices are ready to reverse。
巴斯克维尔猎犬 MACD柱提供的交易者的就像是X光提供给医生的，表明了皮肤下骨头的硬或软。当价格达到极端时，多头或空头也许会显得有力量，但是MACD柱的背离表明强势的一方开始变弱，价格要反转。
Go long when MACD…Histogram traces a bullish divergence； that is； when prices fall to a new low while the indicator ticks up from a more shallow low。 Get long after MACD…Histogram ticks up from its second bottom。 A bottom that is more shallow than the preceding one shows that bears have grown weaker； and the uptick tells us that bulls are taking over。 Place a protective stop below the latest bottom。 Rallies from bullish divergences tend to be very powerful； but you must always use protection in case a signal does not work out。
当MACD柱跟踪到看涨背离时做多，也就是说，当价格跌到新低，指标从一个很浅的低点上涨。当MACD柱从第二个底部上涨时做多。底部比前一个底部浅表明空头变弱了，上涨告诉我们多头主导波动了。在最后一个底部下面设置止损点。看涨背离的上涨很强，但是为了防止信号失真，你必须永远采取保护措施。
An aggressive trader can make that stop “stop…and reverse；” meaning that if stopped out of a long position； he will reverse and go short。 When a super…strong signal doesn’t pan out； it shows that something is fundamentally changing below the surface of the market。 If you buy on the strongest signal in technical analysis and then your stop gets hit； it means that bears are especially strong； making it worthwhile to sell short。 Reversing positions from long to short is usually not the best idea； but the failure of a divergence of MACD…Histogram is an exception。
激进的交易者可以设置“止损并下反向单”，意味着如果多头仓位被止损，他会反转做空。当一个超级强的信号失效时，那表明基本面已经发生了变化。如果你根据很强的信号做多，但是跌到止损单位置，仓位被止损了，它意味着空头特别强，值得去做空。把多头仓位变成空头仓位通常都不是好主意，但是MACD柱的背离失败是个例外。
I call this a Hound of the Baskervilles signal； after a story by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle。 Sherlock Holmes was called to investigate a murder on a country estate。 His clue came from the fact that the family dog did not bark while the crime was being mitted。 That indicated the dog knew the criminal； and the murder was an inside job。 Sherlock Holmes received his signal not from the action but from the lack of expected action。 When a divergence of MACD…Histogram fails to produce a reversal； it gives a Hound of the Baskervilles signal。
我把这个叫做巴斯克维尔猎犬信号，来自阿瑟·柯南·道尔爵士的故事。有人打电话给歇洛克·福尔摩斯，让他去调查乡村的谋杀案。他的线索来自在案发时家里的狗没叫。这表明狗认识罪犯，谋杀是内部人干的。歇洛克·福尔摩斯不是通过行为得到线索，而是通过本应该发生却没有发生的行为得到了线索。当MACD柱背离不能产生反转，它就发出了巴斯克维尔猎犬信号。
Go short when the MACD…Histogram traces a bearish divergence； that is； when prices rise to a new high but the indicator ticks down from a lower peak。 When the crowd gets on its hind legs and roars； it is tempting to throw caution to the wind； close our eyes； and buy。 When the crowd bees manic； it is hard to remain cool； but an intelligent trader looks for MACD…Histogram divergences。 If prices rally； decline； and then rally to a higher level； but MACD…Histogram rallies； falls below its zero line； breaking the back of the bull； and rallies again； but to a lower level； it creates a bearish divergence。 It shows that bulls have grown weaker；