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It is essential to bine Force Index with trend…following indicators。 If you use this oscillator alone； it will lead to overtrading because it is so sensitive。 In that case； only your broker will make money。 The signals of a short…term oscillator must be filtered using a long…term trend…following indicator。 This is the key principle of the Triple Screen trading system。
把力量指数和趋势跟踪指标放在一起用是很关键的。如果你仅仅使用振荡指标，它会导致过度交易，因为它太敏感。如果这样，你的经纪人就赚钱了。一个短期振荡指标的信号必须用长期趋势跟踪指标来过滤。这是三重滤网交易系统的关键原则。
The Fifth Bullet
第5颗子弹
A clip for an old army rifle held only five bullets。 Going into action with such a weapon forced one to take good aim instead of shooting wildly。 This is a good attitude for trading the markets。
过去步枪只能装5颗子弹。用这种枪打仗，要求你要瞄的准，不能乱开枪。交易也需要这么好的态度。
By now； we have selected four bullets … exponential moving averages； channels； MACD…Histogram； and Force Index。 A moving average and MACD are trend…following indicators。 Channels； Force Index； and MACD… Histogram are oscillators。 What fifth bullet shall we pick？
到目前为止，我们选择了4颗子弹——指数平滑均线，通道，MACD柱和力量指数。均线和MACD是趋势跟踪指标。通道，力量指数和MACD柱是振荡指标。如何选第5颗子弹？
To help you choose your fifth bullet； we’ll review several more tools。 Feel free to range beyond this menu； but make sure to understand how each indicator is constructed and what it measures。 Test your indicators to develop confidence in their signals。
为了帮助你选第5颗子弹，我们要多看几个工具。你可以自由选择，但是要保证你理解了指标的构造和它是如何计算的。测试你的指标才能建立对信号的信心。
In Trading for a Living I described more than a dozen technical indicators。 There are dozens more in other books on technical analysis。 Quality and the depth of understanding are more important than quantity。 A drowning amateur； grasping at straws； keeps adding indicators。 A mature trader selects a few effective tools； learns to use them well； and focuses on system development and money management。
在《以交易为生》中我解释了10多个技术指标。其它书里面还会有几十个指标。质量和理解的深度比数量重要。一个快淹死的业余选手抓着稻草，继续增加指标。成熟的交易者选择几个有用的工具，学习如何正确使用它们，关注系统的发展，重视资金管理。
There are no magic bullets in the markets。 There is no perfect or ultimate indicator。 A trader who bees preoccupied with indicators quickly reaches the point of diminishing returns。 Your choice of analytic tools depends on your trading style。 The idea is to select your tools and quickly move on to where the real money is … system development and risk management。
市场中没有魔力子弹。也没有完美的终极指标。交易者的指标太多，最终是收益越来越少。你的风格不同，选择的分析工具就不同。选择好自己的工具，快速赶到真正值钱的地方——形成系统和风险管理。
Elder…ray Elder…ray is an indicator developed by this author and named for its similarity to x…rays。 It shows the structure of bullish and bearish power below the surface of the markets。 Elder…ray bines a trend…following moving average with two oscillators to show when to enter and exit long or short positions。 Most software developers fail to include Elder…ray in their packages； but you can do it yourself with minimal programming。
艾尔德射线 艾尔德射线是我发明的，根据X光的相似性命名的。它表明了市场下面多头和空头的结构。艾尔德射线结合了趋势跟踪均线和2个振荡指标，以显示何时进场，出场，做多或做空。大部分软件没有艾尔德射线，但是你可以利用比较少的编程来实现。
To plot Elder…ray； divide your puter screen into three horizontal panels。 Plot a chart of the stock you plan to analyze in the top panel and add an exponential moving average。 The second and third panels will contain Bull Power and Bear Power； plotted as histograms。 Here are the Elder…ray formulae：
要想画艾尔德射线，把你的电脑屏幕分成3个水平的板块。在上面的板块显示股票波动，加上指数平滑均线。第2，3个板块包含多头力量和空头力量，用柱状图表示。下面是艾尔德射线德公式：
Bull Power = High … EMA
Bear Power = Low – EMA
多头力量＝最高价－EMA
空头力量＝最低价－EMA
A moving average reflects the average consensus of value。 The high of each bar reflects the maximum power of bulls during that bar。 The low of each bar marks the maximum power of bears during that bar。
均线反映了对价值一致认同的平均值。每个竹线的最高价反应了多头的最大力量。每个竹线的最低价反应了空头的最大力量。
Elder…ray works by paring the power of bulls and bears during each bar with the average consensus of value。 Bull Power reflects the maximum power of bulls relative to the average consensus； and Bear Power the maximum power of bears relative to that consensus。
艾尔德射线利用比较多头，空头的力量和均线来工作。多头力量反映了多头相对平均值的力量，空头力量反应了空头相对平均值的力量。
We plot Bull Power in the second windowpane as a histogram。 Its height reflects the distance between the top of the price bar and the EMA … the maximum power of bulls。 We plot Bear Power in the third windowpane。 Its depth reflects the distance between the low of the price bar and the EMA—the maximum power of bears。
我们在第2个窗口用柱状图画多头力量。它的高度反应了竹线上面最高价和均线的距离——多头的最大力量。我们在第3个窗口用柱状图画空头力量。它的深度反映了竹线上面最低价和均线的距离——空头的最大力量。
When the high of a bar is above the EMA； Bull Power is positive。 When the entire bar sinks below the EMA； which happens during severe declines； Bull Power bees negative。 When the low of a bar is below the EMA； Bear Power is negative。 When the entire bar rises above the EMA； which happens during wild rallies； Bear Power bees positive。
当竹线的高度比均线高，多头力量是正数。当整个竹线在均线下面，这发生在严重的下跌，多头力量变成负数。当竹线的最低价低于均线，空头力量是负数。当整个竹线涨到均线之上，这发生在疯狂的上涨，空头力量变成负数。
The slope of a moving average identifies the current trend of the market。 When it rises； it shows that the crowd is being more bullish； it is a good time to be long。 When it falls； it shows that the crowd is being more bearish； it is a good time to be short。 Prices keep getting away from a moving average but snap back to it； as if pulled by a rubber band。 Bull Power and Bear Power show the length of that rubber band。 Knowing the normal height of Bull or Bear Power reveals how far prices are likely to get away from their moving average before returning。 Elder…ray offers one of the best insights into where to take profits … at a distance away from the moving average that equals the average Bull Power or Bear Power。
均线的坡度确认了当前市场的趋势。当它上涨，它表明大众偏多头，此时最好做多。当它下跌，它表明大众偏空头，此时做好做空。价格总是偏离均线，但是会回到均线，就像拉橡皮筋一样。知道正常的多头或空头力量高度表明了价格离多远才会回到均线。艾尔德射线提供了一个最好的兑现利润的知识——离开均线的距离等于平均的多头或空头的力量。
Figure 5。13 Elder…ray
图5。13 艾尔德射线
“Buy low； sell high” sounds good； but traders and investors seem to have been more fortable buying Lucent above 70 than below 7。 Perhaps they are not as rational as the efficient market theorists would like us to believe？ Elder…ray gives rational traders a glimpse into what is going on below the sur