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ce line。 These “no go” rules are probably the most useful messages of Stochastic。 Moving averages are better than Stochastic at identifying trends； MACD…Histogram is better at identifying reversals； channels are better at identifying profit targets； and Force Index is sharper at catching entry and exit points。 The trouble with them is that they give action signals most of the time。 Stochastic identifies danger zones； just like a line of red flags on a ski slope marks unsafe areas for skiers。 It says “no go” just when you feel tempted to chase a trend。
当随机指标在上边的参考线以上时不要买入；当它在下边的参考线以下时不要做空。这些“不要”的原则恐怕是最有用的随机指标信号。均线确认趋势的能力比随机指标强，MACD柱在确认反转点时比较好，通道确认利润目标比较好，力量指数在抓住进场点和出场点很厉害。它们的问题是它们总是给出信号。随机指标确认危险区域，就像在滑雪的时候有红旗插在危险的地方。它在你要追高的时候说“不”。
Ready to Hunt？ Your choice of indicators depends on personal preferences； just like selecting a car。 Be sure to bine trend…following indicators； which identify trends； with oscillators； which identify reversals。
准备打猎？你到底选择哪个指标取决于你的个人经验，和买车一个道理。要保证把确认趋势的趋势跟踪指标和确认反转的振荡指标结合起来用。
In addition to the indicators described above； you may want to take a look at the Directional indicator； which does a good job of signaling trends。 It consists of several ponents； one of which； ADX； helps identify new bull markets。 Williams ％R is an oscillator similar to Stochastic； especially useful for showing when to pyramid winning positions。 Relative Strength Index （RSI） is an oscillator based entirely on closing prices。 It helps track the behavior of market professionals who tend to dominate markets at closing time。 All of them are described in Trading for a Living。
除了以上所说的，你可能还要看看方向指标，它确认趋势的能力还不错。它包含了几个部分，包括ADX指标，确认新的多头市场。威廉％R是类似随机指标的振荡指标，尤其是在金字塔仓位有用。相对强弱指标（RSI）是一个建立在收盘价的振荡指标。它帮助跟踪市场专业人士，他们在收盘时控制市场。这些都在《以交易为生》里面解释了。
Keep in mind that no single indicator can guarantee you victory in the trading game。 Trend…following indicators； such as moving averages； catch trends but produce whipsaws in trading ranges。 Oscillators identify tops and bottoms during trading ranges but flash premature countertrend signals when the markets begin to run。 Trading signals are easy to recognize in the middle of the chart； but hard to see at the right edge。
记住，没有一个指标可以保证你在交易时取胜。趋势跟踪指标，比如均线，能抓住趋势，但在横盘时就只会画锯齿。振荡指标在横盘时确认顶和底，但是当趋势要形成时它却给出了过早的反向信号。事后看图表，交易信号很明显，但是在实战时，很难确认。
There is no magic indicator。 All indicators are building blocks of trading systems。 A good system uses several tools； bining them so that their negative features filter each other out； while their positive features remain undisturbed。
世上没有魔力指标。每个指标都是交易系统的一部分。优秀的系统使用多个工具，结合它们，这样它们的负面效应互相抵消，同时它们的优点不受影响。
CHAPTER SIX TRADING
第06章 交易
Beginners bee emotional when they trade； but if you want to survive and succeed； you must develop discipline。 The moment you bee aware of feeling fear or joy； use that as a signal to tighten your discipline and follow your system。 You developed that system when the markets were closed and you felt calm。 Now it gives you your only chance of survival and success in the markets。
新手在交易时会情绪化，但是如果你想生存，想成功，你必须有纪律。当你感觉到恐惧和欣喜，把它变成你的纪律信号，跟随你的系统。要在收市以后，心情平静的时候发展自己的系统。此时是你生存和成功的唯一机会。
The idea of an automatic trading system is fundamentally flawed。 If those systems could work； then the smartest guy with the biggest puter would have cornered the market long ago。 Automatic systems do not work because the market is not a mechanical or electronic entity that follows the laws of physics。 It is a huge crowd of people acting in accordance with the imperfect laws of mass psychology。 Physics and mathematics can help； but trading decisions must take psychology into account。
自动交易系统的想法是错误的。如果这样的系统有用，那么最聪明的人加上最快的电脑早就战胜了市场。自动交易系统无效的原因是，市场不是机械的，市场也不是电子的，物理定律对市场不起作用。市场是大众的心理行为，而大众心理学本身就不完美。物理学和数学都能起帮助作用，但是交易决定必须包含心理学。
When you talk with a pro； one of the first questions he’ll ask … or not even ask because he’ll know the answer from a few of your ments … is whether you are a discretionary trader or a system trader。
当你和专业人士交谈时，他们首先会问——也有可能根本不问，因为你说几句话他就知道了你的答案——你是自主交易者，还是系统交易者。
A discretionary trader takes in market information and analyzes it using several technical tools。 He is likely to shift and apply somewhat different tools to different markets at different times。 His decision…making tree has many branches； and he follows them at different times as market conditions change。 All branches are connected to the sturdy trunk of his decision…making tree； an inviolate set of rules for risk control。
自主交易者考虑市场信息，用多个工具分析市场。在不同的市场，不同的时间，他会使用不同的工具。他的决策树像树枝一样多，不同的时间，不同的状况，他有不同的决定。所有的树枝都连接到他强大的决策树，决策树就是一系列控制亏损的原则。
A system trader develops a mechanical set of rules for entering and exiting trades。 He backtests them and puts them on autopilot。 At that point； an amateur and a pro go in opposite directions。 An amateur； frightened by the market； feels relieved that a system； either his own or bought from someone else； will free him from worry。 Market conditions always change and all systems self…destruct； which is why every amateur with a mechanical system must lose money in the end。 A pro who puts his system on autopilot continues to monitor it like a hawk。 He knows the difference between a normal drawdown period and a time when a system deteriorates and has to be shelved and replaced。 A professional system trader can afford to use a mechanical system precisely because he is capable of discretionary trading！
系统交易者形成一系列机械原则，按照机械原则进场出场。他先测试它们，然后让它们自己工作。此时，业余选手和专业人士开始走相反的路。业余选手被市场搞怕了，觉得只要有系统，不管是自己的，还是别人的，都能帮自己减少烦恼。市场状况一直在变，所有的系统都有自毁性，这就是使用机械交易系统的业余选手最终亏钱的原因。专业人士虽然让系统自动工作，但是他会像老鹰一样紧盯着系统。他知道什么时候是正常的下跌，什么时候系统在自毁，此时，他会把系统换掉。专业人士是自主交易，所以他可以让机械交易系统很好地运行。
In my experience； system traders tend to achieve more consistent results； but the best and most successful traders use the discretionary approach。 The choice depends on your temperament rather than a cold business decision。 Some people feel attracted to system trading； others to discretionary trading。 Much of what you read in this book deals with discretionary trading。 All of these ponents can be used in systematic trading。 This book is writ