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也许打印结果很好，如果你用真钱交易，正好连续亏损5次，怎么办？你的测试从来不谈这点，但是这样的事一直在发生。你咬牙切齿地再交易一次，又是亏损。你的亏损很严重了。你还想再交易一次吗？突然，你从打印的结果发现好像把你的未来放在这根稻草上也不行，然而你的账户已经少了很多。
The attraction of electronic testing is such that there is now a small cottage industry of programmers who test systems for a fee。 Some traders spend months； if not years； learning to use testing software。 A loser who cannot admit he’s afraid to trade has a wonderful excuse that he is learning new software。 He’s like a swimmer who is afraid of water and keeps himself busy ironing his swimsuit。
测试软件很有市场，所以形成了收费的系统测试行业。一些交易者花了几个月，如果不是几年的话，去学习如何测试自己的软件。一个输家，不好意思承认自己不敢交易，就说自己在学习新软件。他就像不敢下水游泳的人，却一直忙着烫游泳衣。
Only one kind of system testing makes sense。 It is slow； it is time…consuming； and it does not lend itself to testing a hundred markets at once； but it’s the only method that prepares you for trading。 It consists of going through historical data one day at a time； scrupulously writing down your trading signals for the day ahead； then clicking your chart forward and recording the trades and signals for the next day。
只有一种系统测试有意义。这个测试很慢，花时间，不需要一次测试几百个市场，但是是唯一的让你为交易做准备的方法。它包括每天研究一次历史数据，小心翼翼地记录前一天的交易信号，然后点击图表，让图表向后走，记录下一天的交易和信号。
Begin by downloading your stock or futures data for a minimum of two years。 Swing to the left side of the file； without looking at what happened next。 Open your technical analysis program and a spreadsheet。 The two most important keys for traders on a puter are Alt and Tab because they let you switch between two programs。 Open two windows in your analytic program … one for your long…term chart with its indicators； the other for the short…term chart。 Open a spreadsheet； write down your system’s rules at the top of the page and create columns for the date； entry date and price； and the exit date and price。
一开始下载至少2年的股票或期货数据。从数据的左边开始看，不要看后面发生了什么。打开你的技术分析软件和电子表格。键盘上2个最关键的键是Alt 和Tab，因为你要在多个程序间转换。把你的分析软件分为2个窗口——一个包括长期图表和指标，另一个包括短期图表。打开电子表格，在最上面写下你的系统原则，再创建几栏，分别记录日期，进场日期和价格，出场日期和价格。
Turn to the weekly chart and note its signal； if any。 If it gives you a buy or sell signal； go to the daily chart ending on the same date to see whether it gives you a buy or a sell signal as well。 If it does； record the order you have to place in your spreadsheet。 Now return to the daily chart and click one day forward。 See whether your buy or sell order was triggered。 If so； return to the spreadsheet and record the result。 Track your trade day by day； calculating stops and deciding where to take profits。
如果周线图上有信号，要把这个信号也记下来。如果有买卖信号，到日线图去看看是否也有买卖信号。如果有，在电子表格记下你做的交易。然后回到你的日线图把日期点击到下一天。看看你的买卖单是否被激活。如果是的，回到电子表格记下结果。每天都这么跟踪，计算止损点，决定何处兑现利润。
Follow this process throughout your entire data file； advancing a week at a time on the weekly chart； a day at a time on the daily chart。 At every click write down your system’s signals and your actions。
用这个方法走过所有的数据，每天做一次。每次波动都要记录你的系统信号和你的行动。
As you click forward； one day at a time； the market history will slowly unfold and challenge you。 You click and a buy signal es into view。 Will you take it？ Record your decision in a spreadsheet。 Will you take profits at a set target； on a sell signal； or on the basis of price action？ You are doing much more than testing a set of rigid rules。 Moving ahead day by day； you develop your decision…making skills。 This one…bar…at…a…time forward testing is vastly superior to what you get from backtesting software。
你每天都往后走，这样市场的历史就在你面前展开了，同时挑战你。你点一下，一个买入信号就出现了。你会买入吗？在电子表格里记录你的决定。你会根据卖出信号，或价格的波动兑现利润吗？你不仅仅是在测试严格的原则。每天往后走，你形成了自己的决策技巧。这样一天走一个日线的测试方法比用软件测试强多了。
How will you deal with gap openings when prices open above your buy level or below your stop？ What about limit moves in futures？ Should the system be adjusted； changed； or scrapped？ Clicking forward one day at a time gets you as close to the real experience of trading as you can ever get without putting on a trade。 It puts you in touch with the raw edge of the market； which you can never experience through an orderly printout from a professional system tester。
如果开盘价是跳空的，比你的买入点高，比你的止损点低，你会怎么办？如果期货涨停或跌停，怎么办？是不是要调系统，改系统，或者是把系统报废掉？每天往后走一个日线的方法就像是真实的交易经验，虽然你没有交易。它让你感碰到真实的市场，这个经验是专业系统测试软件打印出来的结果无法比拟的。
Manual testing will improve your ability to think； recognize events； and act in the foggy environment of the market。 Your trading plans must include certain absolute rules； most of them concerning money management。 As long as you stay within those rules； you have much freedom in trading the markets。 Your growing levels of knowledge； maturity； judgment； and skill are much more important assets than any puterized testing。
人工测试能提高你的思维能力，判断能力，以及在市场迷雾中行动的能力。你的交易计划必须包含明确的原则，大多是关于资金管理的。只要你坚守原则，你交易时就很自由。你增长的知识，成熟，判断，技巧都比电脑测试要珍贵。
Paper Trading
模拟交易
Paper trading means recording your decision to trade and tracking it as if it were a real trade； only without money。 Most of those who paper trade have lost their nerve after getting beat up by the markets。 Some people alternate between real trades and paper trades and cannot understand why they seem to make money on paper but lose whenever they put on a real trade。
模拟交易就是纪录你的交易决定，并跟踪它，就像真的交易，只是没用真钱。大部分人做模拟交易时，如果被市场教训了，会发火。有些人既做真实交易，也做模拟交易，就是不明白为什么做模拟交易就赚钱，做真实交易就亏钱。
This happens for two reasons。 First； people tend to be less emotional with paper。 Good decisions are easier to make when your money is not on the line。 Second； good trades often look murky at entry time。 The easy…looking ones are more likely to lead to problems。 A nervous beginner jumps into obvious…looking trades but paper trades the more promising ones。 It goes without saying that hopping between real trading and paper trading is sheer nonsense。 You either do one or the other。
有2个原因。第一，模拟交易一般没有情绪。不用真钱，很容易做出正确的决定。第二，好的交易在整个过程中看起来很模糊。看起来很容易的有可能导致问题。紧张的新手跳进明显的，更有希望的交易，但只是模拟交易。同时在真实交易和模拟交易之间跳来跳去是没有意义的。你必须选择一个。
There is only one good reason to paper trade … to test your discipline。
模拟交易的唯一理由是——测试你的纪律性。
If you can download your data at the end of each day； do your homework； write down