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The key principle of Triple Screen is to begin your analysis by stepping back from the markets and looking at the big picture for strategic decisions。 Use a long…term chart to decide whether you are bullish or bearish; and then return closer to the market to make tactical choices about entries and exits。
三重滤网的核心原则就是开始分析时,首先后撤一步,采用大视角考察长期图表,以制定策略,确定多空方向。然后再接近市场,做出战术决策以寻找进场点和出场点。
The Principles of Triple Screen
三重滤网的原则
Triple Screen resolves contradictions between indicators and time…frames。 It reaches strategic decisions on long…term charts; using trend…following indicators … this is the first screen。 It proceeds to make tactical decisions about entries and exits on the intermediate charts; using oscillators … this is the second screen。 It offers several methods for placing buy and sell orders … this is the third screen; which we may implement using either intermediate … or short…term charts。
三重滤网解决了指标和交易周期存在的相互冲突的矛盾。首先在长期图上采用趋势指标制定策略——这是第一重滤网。然后在中期图表上运用振荡指标来确定进场点和出场点——这是第二重滤网。三重滤网提供了数种方法来设置买卖订单——这是第三重滤网,我们可以采用中间图或短期图来安排交易单。
Begin by choosing your favorite timeframe; the one with whose charts you like to work; and call it intermediate。 Multiply its length by five to find your long…term timeframe。 Apply trend…following indicators to long…term charts to reach a strategic decision to go long; short; or stand aside。 Standing aside is a legitimate position。 If the long…term chart is bullish or bearish; return to the intermediate charts and use oscillators to look for entry and exit points in the direction of the long…term trend。 Set stops and profit targets before switching to short…term charts; if available; to fine…tune entries and exits。
首先选择你最喜欢的周期,把你交易的周期定义为中周期。然后把这个周期的长度乘以5,得到长周期。在这个长周期上采用趋势指标,制定策略,确定做多,做空或是观望。观望也是合理的做法。如果长期图看涨或看跌,则返回到中期图,用振荡指标来寻找顺应着长期趋势方向的进场点和出场点。在切换到短期图表之前,设置好止损和利润目标,如果可能,精确地调整好进场点和出场点。
SCREEN ONE
第一重滤网
Choose your favorite timeframe and call it intermediate。 Multiply it by five to find the long…term timeframe。 Let’s say you prefer to work with daily charts。 In that case; move immediately one level higher; to the weekly chart。 Do not permit yourself to peek at the dailies because this may color your analysis of weekly charts。 If you are a day…trader; you might choose a 10…minute chart as your favorite; call it intermediate; and then immediately move up to the hourly chart; approximately five times longer。 Rounding off is not a problem; technical analysis is a craft; not an exact science。 If you are a long…term investor; you might choose a weekly chart as your favorite and then go up to the monthly。
选择你最喜欢的交易周期,并将它定义为中周期。再把它的长度乘以5,得到长周期。如果你选择日线作为中周期,则立刻将注意力移到周线图,在你的长期图表上进行分析。在这个决策过程里,不允许再看日线图,因为这会影响你对周线图的分析。如果日内交易者把10分钟图做为中周期,则须将注意力立即移到60分钟图。6分钟图和10分钟图的5倍,也就是50分钟图略有差异,不过无碍大局,毕竟交易只是一门技艺而不是精确的科学。如果你是长线交易者,你可以选择周线图作为中间图表,并把月线作为长周期。
Apply trend…following indicators to the long…term chart and make a strategic decision to trade long; short; or stand aside。 The original version of Triple Screen used the slope of weekly MACD…Histogram as its weekly trend…following indicator。 It was very sensitive and gave many buy and sell signals。 I now prefer to use the slope of a weekly exponential moving average as my main trend…following indicator on long…term charts。 When the weekly EMA rises; it confirms a bull move and tells us to go long or stand aside。 When it falls; it identifies a bear move and tells us to go short or stand aside。 I use a 26…week EMA; which represents half a year of trading。 You can test several different lengths to see which tracks your market best; as you would with any indicator。
在长期图表上采用趋势指标进行分析,并制定策略以确定做多,做空或是观望。最早的三重滤网采用周线图的MACD柱作为趋势指标,它非常敏感并发出许多买卖信号。而现在我更喜欢采用周线图上的均线作为我长期图表上的主要趋势指标。当周线图上的均线上涨时,则表明是上涨趋势,应当做多或观望。当它下跌时,则表明是下跌趋势,应当做空或观望。我采用26周均线,原因是它代表了半年来市场大众的交易活动。交易者可以测试均线的参数并寻找到适合特定市场的优化均线。其它指标同理。
I continue to plot weekly MACD…Histogram。 When both EMA and MACD…Histogram are in gear; they confirm a dynamic trend and encourage you to trade larger positions。 Divergences between weekly MACD…Histogram and prices are the strongest signals in technical analysis; which override the message of the EMA。
我在周线图上继续画MACD柱,当均线与MACD柱协调一致,彼此呼应时,则表明确立了动力十足的趋势,鼓励交易者交易较大仓位。而周线图上MACD柱与价格发生的背离,则是技术分析中最强烈的信号,甚至超过了均线的信息。
Figure 6。1 Triple Screen … Weekly Chart
图6。1 三重滤网——周线图
Gaming stocks tend to do well in a weak economy … gambling appeals to people down on their luck。 In 2000 and 2001; as the broad stock market was declining; gaming stocks put in a stellar performance。 Alliance Gaming; for instance; rallied from below 2 to over 40; with very few pullbacks。 How could Triple Screen help us benefit from this performance?
在经济不景气的情况下,游戏公司的股票还表现不错——人们喜欢赌博,赌运气。在2000年和2001年,整个股市在跌,游戏公司股票却在慢慢发展。比如说联合游戏公司,从2以下涨到40多,中途很少有回调。如何让三重滤网帮助我们取得收益呢?
The pattern between points A and B is called a saucer bottom; a slow drawn…out minimal decline and just as minimal a rise on hardly any volume。 Still; during that time ALLY had managed to put in a bullish divergence of MACD…Histogram; a hugely powerful signal that is rarely seen on weekly charts。 It traced a low in area A; but could not even push below zero at the bottom of the saucer。 The first vertical arrow marks the point where MACD…Histogram starts trending higher。 A few weeks later the weekly EMA also turns up; and at that point; with both weekly indicators trending up; ALLY bees a screaming buy。 It is time to switch to the daily charts and look for buying opportunities。 The second vertical arrow marks another period when both the EMA and MACD…Histogram are in gear to the upside; and then the stock doubles in a few weeks。 The clean; steady uptrend of the weekly EMA keeps telling us to trade ALLY only from the long side。
A点和B点之间的模式叫圆底,慢慢地下跌,慢慢地上涨,几乎没有成交量。然而,在这期间,联合游戏的MACD柱形成了看涨背离,在周线图上是巨大的有力信号。它在A区域跟踪到了低点,但是不能把它压到0轴以下。第一个垂直向上的箭头是MACD柱开始上涨的地方。几周后,周均线也上涨,在那里,2个周指标都上涨,联合游戏可以买入。此时可以转到日线图去找买入机会。第二个垂直向上的箭头标明均线和MACD柱第二次一致向上,然后几周内股价翻番了。这种一致的,稳定上涨的周均线一直在告诉我们买入联合游戏。
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