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当股票的价格在支撑区上面横盘时，进来的买单开始枯竭，在支撑区以下有很多止损单在等着。专业人士开始做空，往下推动股票。于是动摇了支撑，正好激活了业余选手的止损单。在高点做空的专业人士开始回补，把业余选手的止损单都买进来了。当下跌减速后，他们再次买入，开始做多。市场上涨，在支撑区以下买的专业人士开始卖出。很多横盘的突破是假突破——这是专业人士的钓鱼法，专门在常见位置扫掉别人的止损单。一旦别人的止损单被扫掉了，市场又开始反转。大部分交易者被假突破害了几次，开始讨厌了，于是放弃止损。这样真的反转就抓住了他们。他们最终会亏钱，不管有没有止损，被洗出市场。
Placing stops at obvious levels is not a good idea。 You are better off placing them a bit closer to protect capital or a bit farther to reduce the risk of getting hit。 Try not to do what everybody else does。 Be sure to place your stop where you do not expect the market to go。 If you expect prices to fall to a certain level； why place a stop there？ You’re better off closing your trade without waiting。
在明显的位置下止损单不是好主意。你可以把止损单下的更近一点以保护资金，或者下远点，以防止止损单被扫掉了。尽量不要做别人都在做的事。尽量把止损单下在市场碰不到的地方。如果你知道市场会跌到那里，那么为什么要下止损单呢？那还不如尽快平仓。
There are two inputs into placing stops： technical analysis and money management。 You can bine them to find the right size for your trade as well as the right place for your stop。 The first step is to decide how many dollars you should risk on the trade you’re about to take。 Later； in the section on money management； you’ll learn to limit your risk on any trade to a tiny percentage of your account。 If you’re not fully confident； risk an even smaller percentage。 Once you have the dollar figure for your maximum risk； turn to technical analysis to find where to place your stop。 A stop based on technical analysis is almost always tighter； that is； closer to the market； than the money management stop。 Your account is now starting to look like a submarine with a double hull … softer on the outside and harder on the inside。
有2种止损的方法：技术分析和资金管理。你可以结合它们以找到合理的仓位大小和合理的止损点。第一步是决定你交易时要承受多少风险。后面会谈到资金管理，你会学到如何控制风险，使账户只有很小比例的风险。如果你不够自信，可以用更小的比例。一旦你用金额算出了最大的风险，回到技术分析，以找到止损点。根据技术分析找的止损点要紧点，也就是说，要离市场近点，资金管理则可以远点。这样你的账户就像潜水艇的骨架一样——外面软，里面硬。
Your money management stops belong in the market。 They represent your maximum allowable risk level； which you may not violate under any circumstances。 If your technical analysis stops are closer to the market； you may hold them in your mind as you monitor prices and are prepared to exit if those levels gets hit。
你的资金管理止损单属于市场。它们代表你最大可以承受的风险，任何情况下，你都不会违背这个止损。如果你的技术分析止损离市场近，你可以放在脑子里，盯着价格，如果碰到了，可以出场。
Here； I want to share with you two advanced methods for placing stops。 Try to program them into your software and test them on your market data。 Until now； I have never disclosed SafeZone to traders； except to small groups in Traders’ Camps； where I like to share my latest research。 It is my principle not to withhold information from my books。 I write as I trade and maintain my edge not by secrecy but by developing new methods。
在这里，我想和你分享2个高级的止损方法。尽量把它们编进你的软件，用你的数据测试。截止到目前，我没有向交易者透露过安全区域的概念，只有交易者训练营的小部分人知道，我想分享我最新的研究成果。我的原则就是写书时不做保留。我在交易时写书，还能继续保持优势，不是为了保密，是为了发现新方法。
The SafeZone Stop
安全区域止损
Once in a trade； where should you put your stop？ This is one of the hardest questions in technical analysis。 After answering it； you’ll face an even harder one … when and where to move that stop with the passage of time。 Put a stop too close and it’ll get whacked by some meaningless intraday swing。 Put it too far； and you’ll have very skimpy protection。
一旦进场了，你应该在哪里止损？这是技术分析最难回答的问题。就算回答了，你还要面对更难的问题——随着时间的推移，止损要如何移动？如果止损太近了，市场没有意义的波动也会把它扫掉。如果止损放的太远了，保护又不够。
The Parabolic System； described in Trading for a Living； tried to tackle this problem by moving stops closer to the market each day； accelerating whenever a stock or a modity reached a new extreme。 The trouble with Parabolic was that it kept moving even if the market stayed flat and often got hit by meaningless noise。
我在《以交易为生》中谈过抛物线系统，想通过每天移动止损的方式解决这个问题，当股票或商品期货到达极限价格时更好用。抛物线的问题是，即使市场是横盘，或者是无意义的波动，系统也总是在动，容易被扫止损。
The concept of signal and noise states that the trend is the signal and the nontrending motion is the noise。 A stock or a future may be in an uptrend or a downtrend； but the noise of its random chop can obscure its signal。 Trading at the right edge is hard because the noise level is high。 I developed SafeZone to trail prices with stops tight enough to protect capital but remote enough to keep clear of most random fluctuations。
信号的意思是说趋势就是信号，噪音的意思是说没有方向的波动叫噪音。股票或期货也许上涨或下跌，但是随机的噪音会让趋势变得模糊。正确交易很难，因为噪音太大。我发明的安全区域能跟踪价格，用止损保护资金，还能远离大部分随机波动。
Engineers design filters to suppress noise and allow the signal to e through。 If the trend is the signal； then the countertrend motion is the noise。 When the trend is up； we can define noise as that part of each day’s range that protrudes below the previous day’s low。 When the trend is down； we can define noise as that part of each day’s range that protrudes above the previous day’s high。 SafeZone measures market noise and places stops at a multiple of noise level away from the market。
工程师发明了滤网在过滤噪音，让信号通过。如果趋势就是信号，那么逆势的波动就是噪音。当趋势上涨时，每天波动超过前一天最低点就是噪音。当趋势下跌， 每天波动超过前一天最高点就是噪音。安全区域计算噪音，让止损点远离噪音。
We may use the slope of a 22…day EMA to define the trend。 You need to choose the length of the lookback period for measuring noise level。 It has to be long enough to track recent behavior but short enough to be relevant for current trading。 A period of 10 to 20 days works well； or we can make our lookback period 100 days or so if we want to average long…term market behavior。
你也许使用22日均线的坡度来确定趋势。你需要选择时间参数来计算噪音。既要足够长，以计算最近的行为；又要足够短，以和近期的交易同步。10——20天都可以，或者用100天，那么我们就是想计算长期的市场行为。
If the trend is up； mark all downside penetrations during the look…back period； add their depths； and divide the sum by the number of penetrations。 This gives you the Average Downside Penetration for the selected lookback period。 It reflects the average level of noise in the current uptrend。 Placing your stop any closer would be self…defeating。 We want to place our stops farther away from the market than the average level of noise。 Multiply the Average Downside Penetration by a coefficient； starting with two； but experiment with higher numbers。 Subtract the result fr