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rom the market … when they get hit； you lose more。 Also； you have to sit through long periods of inactivity； which many people find hard to tolerate； and you miss many short…term trading opportunities。
成功的趋势交易者单笔交易能抓住大波动，赚很多钱。其它优势包括有更多的时间决定进场点，出场点，不用死盯屏幕，情绪上感到满足。然而，趋势交易也有不足之处。止损离价格太远了——一旦被止损，亏损就很大。同时，你必须坐等很长时间，很多人都受不了，你错过了很多短期的交易机会。
Swing traders have more opportunities than trend traders； gaining more experience from frequent trades。 The dollar risk is lower thanks to closer stops； and quick rewards provide emotional satisfaction。 Swing trading also has its drawbacks。 Expenses for missions and slippage are higher； due to more frequent trading。 You must work every day； actively managing trades。 Also； you are likely to miss major moves … you can’t catch big fish on a small hook。
波段交易者比趋势交易者有很多机会，通过频繁交易能积累很多经验。因为止损很近，所以风险低，快速的回报能带来精神上的满足。波段交易也有不足之处。佣金和滑点的费用很高，因为交易太频繁了。你必须每天工作，积极地管理好交易。同样，你会错过大波动——你不能用小钩子钓大鱼。
Trend trading … buying and holding in a major bull market … works best with the type of stocks that Peter Lynch calls 10…baggers； those that go up by a factor of 10。 They are usually newer； cheaper； less seasoned issues。 An Internet or a biotech pany with a hot new invention； a new patent； or a new idea is more likely to go up by a huge percentage than the stock of an old established firm。 A small pany may bet its future on a single idea or product； and its stock will soar if the public buys that bet or stay in the doghouse if it doesn’t。 Had a large multinational pany e up with the same invention； its stock would have barely budged because one more product makes little difference for a huge firm。
趋势交易——上涨时买入并持有——彼得·林奇所谓的10垒打，涨10倍的股票就适合这样交易。它们通常很新，很便宜，比较稳定。互联网或生物科技公司的新发明，新专利或新思想，很可能引起大涨，而比较老的公司则不太可能出现这个现象。一个小公司可能在一个想法或产品上下赌注，如果大众领情买入，就会飙涨；如果大众不领情，就只能爬在地上。如果大型的跨国公司发明了新东西，股价很少动，因为对于大公司来说，单一的产品不会造成很大的不同。
The lure of big trends makes stocks of small panies in promising new industries attractive to trend traders。 Swing traders should select their candidates from among the most actively traded stocks on major exchanges。 Look for large…cap stocks which swing within broad； well…defined channels。
对于趋势交易者来说，有前景的小公司是有吸引力的。波段交易会则应该选择大型交易所里面的活跃股票。寻找大块头，交易区间宽广，容易使用通道的股票。
Once you choose a stock； don’t assume it will continue to behave the same way forever。 panies change； and you must stay on top of your picks。 For example； DELL； started by Michael Dell in his college dorm room； used to be a tiny public pany； but grew into one of the largest puter firms in the world。 A friend of mine bought 50；000 worth of Dell in the early 1990s and cashed out three years later at 2。3 million； but DELL’s days of spiking through the roof and doubling twice a year are gone。 Instead； this widely held stock has bee a vehicle for swing traders； and not a very active one at that。
一旦你选择了一只股票，不要以为它永远这样。公司在变化，你的选择也要变化。比如戴尔电脑，麦克·戴尔在大学宿舍创立了这个公司，过去是小公司，但是它成长为全世界最大的电脑公司之一。我的一个朋友在90年代买了50000元的戴尔，3年后兑现为230万，但是那种直飞云天，一年2倍的日子过去了。相反，这种大家都持有的股票成为波段交易者的工具，波动不是很激烈。
A beginning trader is better off learning to catch swings； because profit targets and stops are clearer； feedback es faster； and money management is easier。 The choice between trend trading and swing trading is partly objective and partly subjective。 Should you trade trends or swings？ My impression； after meeting thousands of traders and investors； is that the elite tend to trade the big moves and ride major trends； but people who can do it successfully are few and far between。 There are many more traders who make money … sometimes very serious money … by trading swings。 The principles of Triple Screen work for both； even though the entries and especially the exits are different。
新手最好先学习抓波段，因为利润目标和止损都很清晰，回报快，资金管理简单。选择趋势交易或波段交易，部分主观，部分客观。你应该交易趋势还是波段？根据我和几千个交易者，投资者沟通的经验，精英一般交易大波动，但是能做到这点的人很少。还有很多交易者都能赚钱——有时能赚很多钱——通过波段交易。三重滤网对2者都有用，只是进场点，尤其是出场点不同。
TREND TRADING Trend trading means holding your positions for a long time； sometimes for months。 It requires holding while your stocks react against the main trend。 Bull and bear markets are driven by shifts in the fundamentals； such as new technologies and discoveries in the case of stocks； weather patterns in the case of agricultural markets； political shifts in the case of currencies； and so on。 Fundamental factors are behind bull and bear markets； but prices move only in response to actions by traders and investors。 When your fundamental information forecasts a major move； you need to analyze the charts to see whether the technicals confirm the fundamentals。
趋势交易 意味着长期持有仓位，有时是几个月。当价格相反于主趋势时也要持有。上涨和下跌是因为基本面在变化，比如股票市场的新科技，新发明，农业市场的天气变化，外汇市场的政治变化等等。基本面因素躲在上涨和下跌的市场后面，但是价格对交易者和投资者的行动直接起反映。当基本面信息预测到大波动时，你要分析图表，看看技术是否确认了基本面。
A market doesn’t send you an invitation before it takes off。 When a trend first climbs out of the cellar； few people pay attention。 Amateurs are fast asleep； while professionals monitor their markets and scan for breakouts and divergences。 Active markets get into the news because the lows and especially the highs attract journalists。 One of the key differences between the pros and the outsiders is that the pros always track their markets； while amateurs wake up and look at charts only after a market hits the news。 By that time the train has already left the station。 The ABC Rating System； described on page 255； can help you handle the challenge of tracking stocks through inactive periods。
市场是不会在起飞前给你发邀请函的。当市场开始走出低谷时，只有很少的人能注意到。业余选手还在睡觉，而专业人士还在忙着找突破和背离。活跃的市场对新闻反映快，因为记者喜欢在最低点，尤其是最高点报道。专业人士和场外人的关键区别是，专业人士一直在跟踪市场，然而业余选手是等到了消息再醒过来看图表。此时火车已经离站了。ABC评分系统能帮助你在不活跃的时候跟踪股票。
A new breakout is easy to recognize but hard to trade and even harder to hold。 As a trend speeds up； more and more people pray for a pullback。 The stronger the trend； the less likely it is to acmodate bargain hunters。 It takes a lot of patience and confidence to hold a position in a trend。 Traders tend to be active men with the attitude of “don’t just sit there； do something。” Learning to be passive es hard to them。 One reason women tend to trade better is that they are more likely to be patient。
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