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几个学者已经通过数据统计得到了这个结论，价格总是围绕价值上下波动。波段交易意味着在平静时买，在疯狂时卖（在上涨的均线附近买入，在通道上线卖出），或者是在平静时做空，在绝望时回补（在下跌的均线附近做空，在通道下线回补）。做波段交易最好的市场是最活跃的股票和在通道内波动的蓝筹股。低价股留着做趋势。要选择交易市场的话，先选20个最活跃的股票，以及一些很出名的蓝筹股，要选择通道最宽，波动最有规律的。
Be sure to select only those candidates whose daily channels are wide enough for a C…level trader to take at least a point out of a trade。 A C trader is someone who normally takes 10％ or more out of a channel。 The only way you can prove you are a B or even an A trader is by trading at that level for at least six months。 Even A traders are better off with broad channels because profits are fatter。 Beginners have no choice but to use the “1 point for a C trader” rule。 This translates into 10…point channels。 Technical signals may look delicious； but if a channel is narrower than 10 points； click on to the next stock。
记得所选的市场日线通道要足够宽，C水平的交易者至少能赚1个点。C水平的交易者一般会赚到通道的10％。如果你想证明你是B，或者是A水平的交易者，你起码要连续半年维持在这个水平才算。即使是A水平的交易会则，最好也要选宽通道，因为利润多。新手的选择余地不大，只好使用“C水平交易者赚1个点”的原则。这是针对10点的通道来说的。也许技术信号看起来不错，但如果通道宽度小于10点，还是选择下一个股票吧。
Some stocks give better technical signals than others。 Look for a handful of regular performers； you need six or seven； certainly no more than 10。 Tracking just a handful of issues allows you to keep up your daily homework without running ragged or falling behind。 Learn the personalities of your stocks； rate yourself on every trade； and once you bee a steady B trader； increase your trading size。
有些股票的技术信号比其它股票好。可以寻找几个波动规则的股票，6，7个，不要超过10个。跟踪几个股票能让你做好每天的功课，不会让你分散注意力，不会落后。了解你的股票的个性，给每笔交易打分，一旦你成为B水平的交易者，就提高你的仓位。
When the weekly trend is up； wait for daily oscillators to bee oversold while prices decline toward the EMA。 When the weekly trend is down； look for sell signals from daily oscillators while prices rally toward the EMA。 If an oscillator falls to a new multi…month low while prices are moving toward the EMA； it shows that bears are extra strong and it is better to put off buying until the following bottom。 The reverse applies to shorting。
当周线图上趋势上涨时，等待日线图上的振荡指标变成超卖，同时价格下跌到均线。当周线图上趋势下跌时，等待日线图上的振荡发出卖出信号，同时价格上涨到均线。如果振荡指标跌到了最近几个月的新低，同时价格靠近均线，它表明空头太强，最好推迟买入，知道下一个底的到来。做空时同理。
In a weekly uptrend； the bottoms of daily charts tend to be very sharp affairs。 The best time to buy is when the market stabs below its daily EMA。 The best time to short is when the market stabs above it。 To place an order near the EMA； estimate its level for tomorrow。 The math is simple。 You know where the EMA was yesterday and where it closed today。 If it has risen； say； by half a point； expect tomorrow’s rise also to be half a point and add that to today’s EMA。
周线图上上涨，日线图上的底部则很难处理。最好的买入时机是价格跌到均线以下。最好的做空时机是价格涨到均线以上。在均线附近下单，估计明天就是这个价位。数学很简单。如果你知道昨天均线的位置，就知道今天的位置。如果均线上涨，比如涨了0。5点，预测明天也会涨0。5点，把它加到均线值上。
Take a look at how your stock has behaved since the latest trend began。 If the trend is up； look at the previous declines。 If the stock has returned to the EMA three times and penetrated it by an average of a point and a half； place a buy order approximately a point below the moving average； a little more shallow than the previous declines。 Estimate the EMA for tomorrow and adjust your buy orders daily。 Electronic brokers do not bee irritated when you change orders each day！
从股票的最近一次趋势开始研究它是如何动作的。如果趋势上涨，看看它以前的下跌。如果股票3次回到均线，平均穿过1。5点，在均线下1个点下单买入，要比之前的下跌浅一点点。每天估计第二天的均线值，每天下单。如果你每天改变订单，电子经纪人是不会生气的！
Swing trading； like fishing； demands a great deal of attention and patience。 You need to do your homework daily； calculate the estimated EMA for tomorrow； and place orders。 You also must calculate your profit targets and stops。
波段交易就像钓鱼，需要很多专注和耐心。你需要每天做功课，计算第二天均线值，下单。你还要计算利润目标和止损点。
After entering a swing trade； place a protective stop； using the SafeZone method。 Swing trading is a high…wire act； requiring a safety net。 Stops and money management are essential for your survival and success。
一旦进行了波段交易，要下保护性止损单，使用安全区域止损方法。波段交易就是高空表演，需要安全网。止损和资金管理是你生存和成功的关键。
Take profits near the channel line。 The exact level depends on the strength of the swing。 If MACD…Histogram and Force Index are making new highs； the market is strong； and you can wait for the channel line to be hit。 If they act weak； grab your first profit while it’s still there。 What if a strong swing overshoots the channel line？ An experienced trader may shift his tactics and hold a little longer； perhaps until the day when the market fails to reach a new extreme。 A beginner must train himself to take profits near the channel wall because he does not have the skills to switch on the fly。 Being able to take a limited profit without kicking yourself for missing a big part of a move is a sign of emotional maturity。 It is liberating to accept what you asked for and not worry about the rest。 Profit targets help you create a structure in an unstructured environment。 Measure your performance as the percentage of the channel width。 You must grade yourself to know where you stand。
在通道上线附近兑现利润。具体的位置则需要看波动的力量。如果MACD柱和力量指数都创造了新高，市场很强，你可以等价格碰到通道上线。如果它们的表现弱，尽快兑现利润。如果波动很强，冲破了通道上线，如何？有经验的交易者会改变战术，多持有一段时间，也许持有到第二天市场不再创造新高为止。新手必须训练自己的通道边缘附近兑现利润，因为他没有本事去飞。有能力取得稳定的收益，还不会错过大波动，这是成熟的标志。你可以自由地取得你想要的，不用管其它的。利润目标可以帮助你构造一个你没有的环境。用通道宽度百分比的方法计算自己的成绩。你必须给自己打分，这样才知道你的水平。
Early in your trading career； it is safer to concentrate on swings。 As your level of expertise rises； allocate a portion of your capital to trading trends。 Major trends offer spectacular profit opportunities … the big money is in big moves。 You owe it to yourself to learn to trade them。 Concentrate on quality； and money will follow。
在你交易生涯的早期，比较安全的方法是专注于波段。当你的水平和经验增加时，分配部分的资金去做趋势交易。大趋势会提供惊人的利润机会——大钱在大趋势中。你要自己学会如何交易。专注于质量，钱就会流进来。
Options
期权
The number of shares in any pany is fixed； but options are created out of thin air by writers responding to buyers’ demand。 An option buyer hopes that the price will get to his target fast enough； and the writer sells him that hope。 Most hopes never get fulfilled； but people keep hoping and buying opti