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uts you that much closer to a win； you will be looking forward to the next occurrence of your edge； ready and waiting to jump in without the slightest reservation or hesitation。 On the other hand； if you still believe that trading is about analysis or about being right； then after a loss you will anticipate the occurrence of your next edge with trepidation； wondering if it’s going to work。 This； in turn； will cause you to start gathering evidence for or against the trade。 You will gather evidence for the trade if your fear of missing out is greater than your fear of losing。 And you will gather information against the trade if your fear of losing is greater than your fear of missing out。 In either case； you will not be in the most conducive state of mind to produce consistent results。
不管是什么变数定义的优势，赢亏间的分布是随机的。如果每一次亏损让你离赢利更加接近，你就寻找下一个优势，准备好不保留，毫不犹豫地跳进去。另一方面，如果你还相信交易就是靠分析或靠正确，那么当你亏损后，你就会提心吊胆地去寻找下次机会，心里还在想会不会成功。如果你害怕错过机会，不怎么害怕亏损，那么你就要自己找信心。如果你害怕亏损，不怎么害怕错过机会，那么你就要收集反面的信息。不管是哪种情况，你的思想状态都无法实现持续一致的收益。
4。 An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another。 Creating consistency requires that you pletely accept that trading isn’t about hoping； wondering； or gathering evidence one way or the other to determine if the next trade is going to work。 The only evidence you need to gather is whether the variables you use to define an edge are present at any given moment。 When you use “other” information； outside the parameters of your edge to decide whether you will take the trade； you are adding random variables to your trading regime。 Adding random variables makes it extremely difficult； if not impossible； to determine what works and what doesn’t。 If you’re never certain about the viability of your edge； you won’t feel too confident about it。 To whatever degree you lack confidence； you will experience fear。 The irony is； you will be afraid of random； inconsistent results； without realizing that your random； inconsistent approach is creating exactly what you are afraid of。
优势就是一件事发生的概率比另一件事发生的概率大。要想实现持续一致性，就要完全接受这个观点，交易不是希望、憧憬、收集信息以决定交易是否有效。你唯一要收集的证据就是一个定义优势的变数，它在任何时刻都有用。当你使用“其它”信息时，你就给你的交易系统添加了一个随机变数。变数多了，就很难决定哪个有效，哪个没效果。如果你的优势让你感到不确定，你就没有太多自信。不管是什么程度，只要没有自信，你就会体验到恐惧。讽刺的是，你会害怕随机的，不持续的结果，却没有想到你就是害怕随机的，不持续的方法。
On the other hand； if you believe that an edge is simply a higher probability of one thing happening over another； and there’s a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge； why would you gather “other” evidence for or against a trade？ To a trader operating out of these two beliefs； gathering “other” evidence wouldn’t make any sense。 Or let me put it this way： Gathering “other” evidence makes about as much sense as trying to determine whether the next flip of a coin will be heads； after the last ten flips came up tails。 Regardless of what evidence you find to support heads ing up； there is still a 50…percent chance that the next flip will e up tails。 By the same token； regardless of how much evidence you gather to support acting or not acting on a trade； it still only takes one trader somewhere in the world to negate the validity of any； if not all； of your evidence。 The point is why bother！ If the market is offering you a legitimate edge； determine the risk and take the trade。
另一方面，如果你相信优势就是比较高的概率，对于任何优势，赢亏都是随机分布的，那你为什么要收集“其它”证据来反对这笔交易呢？对于有这两个信念的交易者来说，收集“其它”证据没有实际含义。或者让我这么说：收集“其它”证据和10次掷硬币的结果是反面，现在决定下一次是积极，还是反面，是一个道理。不管你的证据如何说明下次是积极，还是有50％的机会为反面。同理，不管你交易的证据是多么充分，这个世界上只要有一个交易者反着做，你的证据就失效了。重点是，没有必要这么做！如果市场给你提供了优势，衡量风险，然后交易。
5。 Every moment in the market is unique。 Take a moment and think about the concept of uniqueness。 “Unique” means not like anything else that exists or has ever existed。 As much as we may understand the concept of uniqueness； our minds don’t deal with it very well on a practical level。 As we have already discussed； our minds are hardwired to automatically associate （without conscious awareness） anything in the exterior environment that is similar to anything that is already inside of us in the form of a memory； belief； or attitude。 This creates an inherent contradiction between the way we naturally think about the world and the way the world exists。 No two moments in the external environment will ever exactly duplicate themselves。 To do so； every atom or every molecule would have to be in the exact same position they were in some previous moment。 Not a very likely possibility。 Yet； based on the way our minds are designed to process information； we will experience the “now moment” in the environment as being exactly the same as some previous moment as it exists inside our minds。
任何时候市场都是独特的。花点时间想想独特的概念。“独特”意味着和任何东西都不一样。不管我们如何理解独特的概念，我们的思想处理不好它。我们已经讨论过了，我们的思想天生自动地把外部环境和我们内部的记忆、信念或态度联系起来。这样就导致我们天生的想法和现实有矛盾。这个世界上没有两个相同的东西。要想实现这点，每个原子和分子必须在和之前一样的空间存在。这不太可能实现。然而，根据我们思想处理信息的方法，我们会同时体验环境中的“现在”和思想中的过去。
If each moment is like no other； then there’s nothing at the level of your rational experience that can tell you for sure that you “know” what will happen next。 So I will say again； why bother trying to know？！ When you try to know； you are； in essence； trying to be right。 I am not implying here that you can’t predict what the market will do next and be right； because you most certainly can。 It’s in the trying that you run into all of the problems。 If you believe that you correctly predicted the market once； you will naturally try to do it again。 As a result； your mind will automatically start scanning the market for the same pattern； circumstance； or situation that existed the last time you correctly predicted its movement。 When you find it； your state of mind will make it seem as if everything is exactly as it was the last time。 The problem is that； from the market’s perspective； it is not the same。 As a result； you are setting yourself up for disappointment。
如果每个时刻都不相同，那么就没有什么理性的经验让你“知道”下一步会如何。所以我要说，尽量正确。我并不是说你不能预测市场的下一步，因为很多时候你是能做到的。我是说要尽量解决这些问题。如果你认为你曾经有一次正确地预测了市场，你自然还想去尝试。结果是，你的思想会自动地扫描市场，寻找一样的模式、环境、或状况，它们上次证明预测是正确的。当你找到了，你的思想会觉得一切都和上次一样。问题是，从市场的角度来说，并不一样。结果是，你自己让自己失望了。
What separates