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THE EXTERNAL BARRIERS TO SUCCESS
成功的外部障碍
An investor can start with practically nothing； buying a few thousand dollars worth of shares。 If he buys and holds； his missions and other expenses will be minor factors in his success or failure。 Traders have a harder task。 Seemingly trivial expenses can break them； and the smaller the account； the greater the danger。 Transaction costs can raise an impassable barrier to winning。
一个投资者可以空手起家，买几千元的股票。如果他买入并持有，佣金和其它费用不会对他的成功或失败造成影响。交易者有更重的任务。似乎很小的费用都能摧毁他们，账户越小，风险越大。交易成本会成为取胜无法逾越的障碍。
Transaction costs？！
交易成本？！
Beginners hardly think of them； yet transaction costs are a leading cause of trader mortality。 Adjusting your plans to reduce those costs gives you an advantage over the market crowd。
新手根本不会想到这个问题，但是交易成本是导致交易者阵亡的首要因素。改变计划，降低成本，你就比市场大众占优势了。
I have a friend whose 12…year…old daughter recently came up with a brilliant idea for a new business； which she called The Guinea Pig Factory。 She ran off promotional flyers on her mom’s copy machine and stuffed them into neighbors’ mailboxes。 Guinea pigs； popular among kids in her neighborhood； cost 6； but she could buy them at the central market for only 4。 The girl dreamed of profits when her mother； who is a trader； asked how she was going to get from the Sydney suburb where they lived to the central market and back。 Someone will give me a ride； answered the girl。
我有一个朋友，他12岁的女儿最近突然想到了一个做生意的好办法。她称作几内亚猪工厂。她用她妈妈的复印机印宣传单，并把宣传单塞进邻居的邮箱。几内亚猪在附近的小孩中很流行，成本6元，但是她可以在中心市场以4元的价格买到。这个女孩在梦想着自己的利润，她的妈妈是交易者，她妈问她，如何从它们住的悉尼郊区到中心市场，然后再回来呢。女孩说，有人会开车带我的。
A child may get a free ride； but the market will not give it to you。 If you buy a stock at 4 and sell it at 6； you won’t make a 2 profit。 A big chunk of it will go for transaction costs。 Amateurs tend to ignore them； while professionals focus on them and do everything in their power to reduce them … unless they’re collecting them from you； in which case they try to blow them up。 Beginners get into their Guinea Pig Factories and cannot understand why they keep buying at 4； selling at 6； and are still losing money。
一个小孩是有可能坐免费车的，但市场不会给你免费的东西。如果你4元买入一个股票，并6元卖出，你的利润不是2元。很大一部分成为交易成本。业余选手总是忽略交易成本，然而专业人士则非常关注交易成本，并尽力避免——除非他们想从你身上得到交易成本，他们才会喜欢交易成本的增加。新手开了几内亚猪工厂，搞不懂自己为何在4元买的，在6元卖，结果还是亏损。
A new trader is like a little lamb walking into a dark forest。 He is likely to be killed； and his skin … his trading capital … divided three ways； between brokers； professional traders； and service providers。 Each will try to grab a piece of that poor lamb’s skin。 Don’t be that lamb … think of transaction costs。 There are three kinds of them： missions； slippage； and expenses。
一个新手交易者就像一只走进了黑暗森林的羔羊。他很可能被杀，他的皮肉——也就是交易资金——被3个人抢去了，经纪人，专业交易者和服务公司。每个人都想抓住羊肉。不要做那只羔羊——想想你的交易成本。一共有3种：佣金，滑点亏损，以及相关费用。
missions
佣金
missions may appear to be a minuscule expense。 Most traders neglect them； but if you add them up； you’re likely to find that your broker ends up with much of your profit。
佣金看起来是很少的费用。很多交易把佣金忽略了，但是如果把佣金加起来，你会发现经纪人赚了你的很多钱。
A brokerage firm may charge about 20 to buy or sell up to 5；000 shares。 If you have a 20；000 account and buy 200 shares of a 100 stock； the mission of 20 es to one…tenth of one percent。 When you sell those shares and pay another mission； the cost of brokerage rises to approximately two…tenths of one percent of your equity。 Trade like that once a week； and at the end of the month your broker will have earned one percent of your account； regardless of whether you made money。 Keep going like that for a year； and your mission cost will rise to 12％ of your equity。 That’s a lot of money。 Professional money managers are happy with 25％ annual returns； year after year。 They could not generate them if they had to pay 12％ annually in missions。
经纪公司对于5000股股票交易收20元的手续费。如果你账户里有20000元，你买了200股价值100元的股票，20元的手续费就相当于1‰。当你卖掉股票的时候，又要交手续费，交给经纪公司的手续费相当于你资金的2‰。如果你每周这样交易一次，月底你会发现你的经纪人已经赚了你资金的1％，不管你是否赚钱。如果这样交易1年，你的佣金会成为你资金的12％。这是相当多的钱了。专业的基金经理对25％的年收益已经非常高兴了。如果要付12％的年佣金，他们肯定做不到25％的年收益。
But wait； it gets worse。
等等，还有更糟糕的。
Look at a small trader who can afford only 100 shares of a 20 stock。 His purchase price is 2；000； but he pays the same 20 mission； which eats up a whopping 1 percent of his equity。 When he closes that trade and pays another mission； he is 2 percent behind the game。 If he trades like that once a week； by the end of the month his missions will e to 10％ of his account； more than 100％ on annualized basis。 The great George Soros averages 29％ annual gain。 He could have never acplished that if he had to jump over a 100％ mission barrier。
看看只买得起100股20元股票的小交易者。他的买价是2000元，但他同样要支付20元的手续费，把他资金的1％抽走了。当他平仓时，还要交一次手续费，2％没有了。如果他每周交易一次，月底时手续费会成为他资金的10％，一年下来手续费超过100％了。伟大的乔治·索罗斯平均一年的收益为29％。如果他的手续费是每年100％，他就别指望实现29％的年收益了。
The bigger your account； the smaller the percentage eaten by missions and the lower your barrier to winning。 Having a large account is a great advantage； but whatever your size； do not be hyperactive。 Each trade and each seemingly cheap mission raise the barrier to your success。 Design a system that doesn’t trade very often。
你的账户资金越多，你的手续费交的越少，你的胜率越高。资金多是个很大的优势，但无论你的仓位多大，不要过分交易。每笔交易和每笔看起来很便宜的手续费，都是你成功的障碍。设计一个并不需要多次交易的系统。
I’ve met futures traders who paid 80 roundtrip missions to full…service brokers。 That was the price of allegedly sage advice； but any disinterested professional will tell you that a futures trader who pays 80 roundtrip has no chance of winning。 Why do people pay such exorbitant rates？ Because the little lamb who ventures into a dark forest is so afraid of the big bad wolf； the professional trader； that he hires himself a protector to guide him； a full…service broker。 Once you do the math； it bees clear that you’re better off taking your chances on the wolf than signing up for a guaranteed skinning by your protector。
我见过一些期货交易者，他们给提供全面服务的经纪公司80元作为来回交易的手续费。他们说这是明智的建议，但是任何专业人士都会告诉你，付80元包来回交易根本没有赚钱的机会。为什么会有人付这么离谱的手续费呢？因为小羔羊进入森林以后，它害怕大灰狼，也就是专业人士，所以他请人保护他，也就是提供全面服务的经纪公司。一旦你自己算算，就很明显，你宁愿把自己交给大灰狼，也不能让别人用保护你的方式扒�