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The Efficient Market Theory
有效市场理论
A trader strains his mind； his soul； his entire being trying to take profits out of the market when an unsettling piece of news es down the pike … the efficient market theory。 Its main adherents are academics； who are fond of pointing out that prices reflect all available market information。 People buy and sell on the basis of their knowledge； and the latest price represents everything known about that market。 This is a valid observation； from which the efficient market gang draws the curious conclusion that no one can beat the market。 Markets know everything； they say； and trading is like playing chess against someone who knows more than you。 Don’t waste your time and money … simply index your portfolio and select stocks based on volatility。
当一个不确定的消息出现时，投资者会竭尽全力地去从市场中找到利润——这就是有效市场理论。最喜欢这么做的是学院派，他们认为价格反映了所有的市场消息。人们根据自己的理解买或卖，最后的价格代表了市场。这很明显，于是相信有效市场的人会下结论说，没有人可以打败市场。市场知道所有的事，他们说，交易就像和一个比你懂的多的人下棋。不要浪费你的时间和金钱——简单地做好资金配置并根据市场波动挑选股票。
What about traders who make money？ The efficient market theorists say that winners are plain lucky。 Most people make money at some point； before bleeding it back into the markets。 What about those who keep outperforming markets year after year？ Warren Buffett； one of the twentieth century’s great investors； says that investing in a market in which people believe in efficiency is like playing poker against those who believe it does not pay to look at cards。
赚钱的交易者呢？有效市场理论家说赢家是因为纯粹的运气。大多数人有时候赚了钱，然后又把钱亏给市场。那怎么解释每年的收益都比市场要好的人呢？沃伦·巴菲特是20世纪最伟大的投资者，他说相信有效市场就像是和一个人打牌，而这个人认为不看牌也能赢。
I think that the efficient market theory offers one of the truest views of the markets。 I also believe it is one of the largest pieces of theoretical garbage。 The theory correctly observes that markets reflect the intelligence of all crowd members； it is fatally flawed in assuming that investors and traders are rational human beings who always strive to maximize gains and minimize losses。 That is a very idealized view of human nature。 Most traders can be rational on a fine weekend when the markets are closed。 They calmly study their charts and decide what to buy and sell； where to take profits； and when to cut losses。 When the markets open on Monday； the best laid plans of mice and men get ripped up in the sweaty palms of traders。
我认为有效市场理论是其中一个能真实地反映市场的理论。我也认为这是最大的垃圾理论。这个理论正确地解释了市场反映大众的智慧，但错误地认为投资者和交易者都是理性的，他们会一直扩大收益并缩小亏损。这是对人性的理想看法。大多数交易者在周末收盘时是理性的。他们会冷静地研究图标，决定买什么，卖什么，何处兑现利润，何处止损。当周一开盘时，他们就算有最好的计划，也会被市场上下洗盘，体无完肤。
Trading and investing are partly rational and partly emotional。 People often act on an impulse even if they harm themselves in the process of doing so。 A winning gambler brags about his positions and misses sell signals。 A fearful trader beaten up by the market bees cautious beyond measure。 As soon as his stock ticks down a bit； he sells； violating his own rules。 When that stock rises； overshooting his original profit target； he can no longer stand the pain of missing the rally and buys way above his planned entry point。 The stock stalls and slides； and he watches； first with hope and later frozen in horror； as it sinks like a rock。
交易和投资部分是理性，部分是情绪。人们经常会冲动，却在冲动的时候害了自己。一个赢利的赌徒因为吹嘘自己的仓位而错过了卖出信号。交易者被市场教训以后变得过分谨慎。当股票跌了一点点，他就卖了，违反了自己的原则。当股票上涨，超过了目标价格时，他担心错过了反弹，在自己的计划价格之上买入。股票下跌了，他看着，一开始还抱希望，最后看见股票像石头一样下沉，吓呆了。
In the end； he can’t take any more pain and sells out at a loss … right near the bottom。 What’s so rational about this process？ The original plan to buy may have been rational； but implementing it created an emotional storm。 Emotional traders do not pursue their best long…term interests。 They are too busy savoring the adrenaline rush or too twisted in fear； desperate to extract their fingers from a mousetrap。 Prices reflect intelligent behavior of rational investors and traders； but they also reflect screaming mass hysteria。 The more active the market； the more traders are emotional。 Rational individuals can bee a minority； surrounded by those with sweaty palms； pounding hearts； and clouded minds。 Markets are more efficient during flat trading ranges； when people are apt to use their heads。 They grow less efficient during trends； when people bee more emotional。 It is hard to make money in flat markets because your opponents are relatively calm。 Rational people make dangerous enemies。 It is easier to take money from traders who are excited by a fast…moving trend because emotional behavior is more primitive and easier to predict。 To be a successful trader you must keep your cool at all times and take money from aroused amateurs。
最后，他终于无法忍受痛苦，亏损卖出——正好在底部附近。这个过程中哪里表现了理性？最初的买入计划可能是理性的，但是在执行时产生了很大的情绪变化。情绪交易者不是为了追求长期的收益。他们受情绪的控制，或者被恐惧折磨，绝望地要把手指从老鼠夹里面拿出来。价格反映了投资者和交易者的理性和聪明，同时它也反映了市场里的歇斯底里。市场波动越激烈，交易者越情绪化。在一个平静的市场很难赚钱，因为你的对手相对冷静。理性的人是你的敌人。从看见快速波动就激动的交易者身上赚钱是很容易的，因为情绪行为是最原始的，容易预测。要想成为成功的交易者，你必须始终保持冷静，从爱激动的业余选手身上赚钱。
People are more likely to be rational when alone； and grow more impulsive when they join crowds。 A trader’s intense focus on the price of a stock； a currency； or a future pulls him into the crowd of all who trade that vehicle。 As the price ticks up and down； the eyes； the heads； and the bodies of traders across the continents start moving up and down in unison。 The market hypnotizes traders like a magician hypnotizes a snake； by moving his flute rhythmically up and down。 The faster the price moves； the stronger the emotions。 The more emotional a market； the less efficient it is； and inefficiency creates profit opportunities for calm； disciplined traders。
人在独处的时候比较理性，和大众在一起的时候则比较冲动。一个交易者关注股票、外汇或者期货时，很容易把自己和大众拉近。当价格上下波动时，全世界的眼睛、脑袋和身体会一起上下摆动。市场对人的催眠作用就像魔术师催眠蛇一样，有节奏地吹笛子。当价格波动的越快，情绪越强烈。当市场的情绪越强，市场越无效，无效的市场为冷静的，有纪律的交易者制造了赚钱机会。
A rational trader can make money by remaining calm and following his rules。 Around him； the crowd chases rallies； hard with greed。 It sells into falling markets； squealing from pain and fear。 All the while； the intelligent trader follows his rules。 He may use a mechanical system or act as a discretionary trader； reading his markets and putting on trades。 Either way； he follows his rules rather than his gut … that is his great advantage。 A mature