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his great advantage。 A mature trader pulls money through the big hole in the efficient market theory； its presumption that investors and traders are rational human beings。 Most people aren’t； only winners are。
一个理性的交易者可以依靠冷静和原则赚钱。在他的周围，大众在抢反弹，非常贪婪。在下跌的市场中，反弹是卖出的好时机，造成痛苦和恐惧。同时，聪明的交易者坚守自己的原则。他要么使用机械交易系统，要么自己交易，了解市场并进行交易。不管怎么说，他都是按照自己的原则做，而不是凭自己的胆子大——这是他最大的优势。有效市场理论认为投资者和交易者都是理性的，而成熟的交易者却从这个漏洞里赚钱。大部分人都不会赚钱，只有赢家才能赚钱。
What Is Price？
什么是价格？
Each trade represents a transaction between a buyer and a seller who meet face to face； by phone or on the Internet； with or without brokers。 A buyer wants to buy as cheaply as possible。 A seller wants to sell as expensively as possible。 Both feel pressure from the crowd of undecided traders that surrounds them； ready to jump in and snatch away their bargain。
每笔交易都发生在买家和卖家之间，他们通过见面，电话或互联网交易，或许通过经纪公司交易，或许没通过经纪公司交易。买家想尽量买便宜的。卖家想尽量卖贵点。买家和卖家都会感受到周围大众的压力，大众随时会抢夺他们的交易机会。
A trade takes place when the greediest buyer； afraid that prices will run away from him； steps up and bids a penny more。 Or the most fearful seller； afraid of getting stuck with his merchandise； agrees to accept a penny less。 Sometimes a fearful seller dumps his merchandise on a calm and disciplined buyer waiting for a trade to e to him。 All trades reflect the behavior of the market crowd。 Each price flashing on your screen represents a momentary consensus of value among market participants。
每笔交易发生在2种情况下，贪婪的买家担心价格会上涨，愿意用高价买入。或者是恐惧的卖家担心价格会跌，愿意用更低的价格卖出。有时候，恐惧的卖家会把他的商品卖给了冷静，有纪律，耐心等待的买家。所有的交易反映了市场大众的行为。每一次屏幕价格的变动都代表了市场参与者在某一瞬间对价值的一致认同（张轶注：作者在后面会一直使用这个结论）。
Fundamental values of panies and modities change slowly； but prices swing all over the lot because the consensus can change quickly。 One of my clients used to say that prices are connected to values with a mile…long rubber band； allowing markets to swing between overvalued and undervalued levels。
公司和商品的基本价值变化比较慢，但是价格却变化很快，因为大众对价格的认同变化很快。我的一个客户常说，价格和价值之间是1英里长的橡皮筋，这样市场就能在过分高估和过分低估之间来回波动。
The normal behavior of the crowd is to mill around； make noise； and go nowhere。 Once in a while a crowd bees excited and explodes in a rally or a panic； but usually it just wastes time。 Bits of news and rumors send ripples through the crowd； whose shifts leave footprints on our screens。 Prices and indicators reflect changes in crowd psychology。
大众的正常行为是左右摇摆，制造噪音，哪里都没去成。有时大众会在反弹或恐慌时激动暴躁，但通常都是浪费时间。一些新闻和传闻会给大众带来变化，他们的变化在电脑上留下了痕迹。价格和指标随着大众心理变化。
When the market gives no clear signals to buy or sell short； many beginners start squinting at their screens； trying to recognize trading signals。 A good signal jumps at you from the chart and grabs you by the face … you can’t miss it！ It pays to wait for such signals instead of forcing trades when the market offers you none。 Amateurs look for challenges； professionals look for easy trades。 Losers get high from the action； the pros look for the best odds。
如果市场没有明确的买卖或做空信号，很多新手就会盯着屏幕，想找到交易信号。一个很好的信号出现了，它抓着你的脸——千万不要错过！如果市场没有信号，就要耐心地等信号，而不是强行交易。业余选手总是找挑战，专业人士则是找有把握的交易。输家在交易时追求激情；专业人士追求最好的机会。
Fast…moving markets give the best trading signals。 When crowds are gripped by emotions； cool traders find their best opportunities to make money。 When markets go flat； many successful traders withdraw； leaving the field to gamblers and brokers。 Jesse Livermore； a great speculator of the twentieth century； used to say that there is time to go long； time to go short； and time to go fishing。
快速波动的市场就是最好的交易信号。当大众被情绪左右时，冷静的交易者会发现最好的赚钱机会。当市场平静之后，很多成功的交易者就出场了，把战场留给赌徒和经纪商。20世界最伟大的投机者杰西·利弗莫尔常常说，有时候要做多，有时候要做空，有时候要去钓鱼。
AN INTELLIGENT GAMBLER？
聪明的赌徒？
Most people gamble at some point in their lives。 For most it provides entertainment； for some it bees an addiction； while a few bee pros and make a living at it。 Gambling provides a living for a very small minority and entertainment for the masses； but a casual gambler reaching for a quick buck has the same chance of success as an ice cube on a hot stove。
大多数人在一生中或多或少赌博过。大多数情况是为了娱乐， 部分人会上瘾，只有少数专业人士以此为生。极少数人以赌博为生，大多数人以赌博为娱乐。但是赌徒想赚快钱，成功机会和火炉上的冰块一样小。
Some famous investors like betting on horses。 They include Peter Lynch； of Magellan Fund fame； and Warren Buffett； who used to publish a newsletter on handicapping。 My friend Lou； to whom my first book was dedicated； spent several years on the handicapping circuit and bet on horses for a living before buying an exchange seat and approaching financial markets like a cool handicapper。 Some card games； such as baccarat； are based on chance alone； whereas others； such as blackjack； involve a degree of skill that attracts intelligent people。
有些著名的投资者爱赌马。包括麦哲伦基金的彼得·林奇和沃伦·巴菲特，巴菲特过去喜欢出版关于赛马障碍赛的电子邮件。我的朋友娄，我的第1本书就是献给他的，多年来，他一直在赌障碍赛，以赌马为生，后来他买了一个交易席位开始接触金融市场，像冷静的障碍赛赌马者一样。有些牌局，比如百家乐，就是靠概率取胜，像21点，它的技巧就吸引了很多聪明人。
Professionals treat gambling as a job。 They keep calculating odds and act only when mathematics point in their favor。 Losers； on the other hand； itch for the action and enter one game after another； switching between half…baked systems。
专业人士把赌博当作自己的工作。他们不断计算概率，当计算结果有利时他们就会行动。输家却相反，忍不住进进出出，在不成熟的系统之间来回摇摆。
When you gamble for entertainment； follow a set of money management rules。 The first rule is to limit how much you’ll risk in any given session。 On a rare occasion when a friend pulls me into a casino； I put what I am willing to lose that night into my right pocket； and stuff my winnings； if any； into the left one。 I stop playing as soon as my right pocket is empty； without ever reaching into the left。 Once in a while I find more money in the left pocket than I had in my right； but I certainly do not count on it。
如果你赌博娱乐，要遵守一套资金管理的原则。第1个原则是限制你每次的风险。偶尔，我的朋友会拉我去赌场，我会把当晚我愿意输的钱放在右边的口袋，如果我赢了钱，我会把它放在左边的口袋。当右边的口袋空了，我就不赌了，我不会再去碰左边的口袋。有一次，我发现左边口袋的钱比右边口袋还多，当然，我没有数到底多少。
A friend who is a successful businessman enjoys the glitter of Las Vegas。 Several times a year he takes 5；000 in cash and flies there for a weekend。 When his bankroll