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A friend who is a successful businessman enjoys the glitter of Las Vegas。 Several times a year he takes 5；000 in cash and flies there for a weekend。 When his bankroll runs out； he goes for a swim in the pool； enjoys a good dinner； and flies back home。 He can afford to spend 5；000 on entertainment and never blows more than his initial stake。 Lounging at a pool after his cash is gone； he differs from legions of pulsive gamblers who keep charging more chips on their credit cards； waiting for their “luck” to turn。 A gambler with no money management is guaranteed to bust out。
我有一个朋友，是成功的企业家，他很喜欢拉斯维加斯。每年都有几次，他带上5000元现金飞到那里过周末。当他的钱没了，他会去游泳，吃一顿大餐，然后飞回家。他能承受的娱乐风险就是5000元，他从不打破这个限制。钱没了，就在游泳池享受，他的表现和冲动的赌徒不一样，赌徒会用信用卡不停地买筹码，希望转运。一个赌徒，如果没有资金管理，一定会完蛋。
CHAPTER TWO WHAT MARKETS TO TRADE？
第02章 交易什么市场？
Many people give little thought to life’s important decisions。 They stumble into them by accidents of geography； time； or chance。 Where to live； where to work； what markets to trade … many of us decide on a whim； without much serious thought。 No wonder so many are dissatisfied with their lives。 You can choose your markets on a whim or pause to think whether to trade stocks； futures； or options。 Each of those has pluses as well as minuses。
很多人在人生大事上面很少思考。他会毫无准备地遇到了意外。在哪里生活，在哪里工作，交易什么市场——很多时候我们都是当机立断的，没有认真思考。难怪很多人都对自己的生活不满。你可以随便选择一个市场去交易，或者是停下来想想，股票、期货或期权，选择哪个呢。每个市场都要权衡利弊。
Successful traders are rational people。 Winners trade solely for the money； while losers get their kicks out of the excitement of the game。 Where those kicks land is another question。
成功的交易者都是理性的人。赢家仅仅为钱交易，输家在刺激中被踢出局。如何被踢是另外一个问题。
In choosing a market to trade； keep in mind that every trading vehicle； be it a stock； a future； or an option； has to meet two criteria： liquidity and volatility。 Liquidity refers to the average daily volume； pared with that of other vehicles in its group。 The higher the volume； the easier it is to get in and out。 You can build a profitable position in a thin stock； only to get caught in the door at the exit and suffer slippage trying to take profits。 Volatility is the extent of movement in your vehicle。 The more it moves； the greater the trading opportunities。 For example； stocks of many utility panies are very liquid but hard to trade because of low volatility … they tend to stay in narrow price ranges。 Some low…volume； low…volatility stocks may be good investments for your long…term portfolio； but not for trading。 Remember that not all markets are good for trading simply because you have a strong opinion on their future direction。 They also must have good volume and move well。
当你选择市场时，请记住，无论是股票、期货还是期权，它们都要符合2个标准：流动性和波动性。流动性就是说和其它市场比，平均每天的成交量要大。成交量越大，进出越容易。你在一个股票上建仓，也许会因为滑点而无法出场。波动性就是波动的最大程度。波动越厉害，交易机会越好。比如说，如果公司的股票很少波动，那么就难交易——因为它们待在很窄的交易区间。一些低交易量，低波动性的股票是长线投资的好市场，但不适合交易。记住，不是每个市场因为你看好它的未来就会有好的交易机会。它们必须有交易量，还要有很好的波动。
STOCKS
股票
A stock is a certificate of pany ownership。 If you buy 100 shares of a pany that issued 100 million shares； you own one…millionth of that firm。 You bee a part owner of that business； and if other people want to own it； they will have to bid for your shares； lifting their value。
股票是拥有公司的证明。如果一个公司发行了1亿股股票，你买了100股，那么你拥有这个公司的100万分之1。你成为生意的拥有者，如果其他人也想拥有它，他们需要报更高的价格买入。
When people like the prospects of a business； they bid for its shares； pushing up prices。 If they don’t like the outlook； they sell their stock； depressing prices。 Public panies try to push up share prices because it makes it easier for them to float more equity or sell debt。 The bonuses of top executives are often tied to stock prices。
如果人们看好这家企业的生意前景，他们就会竞价购买股票，把价格推高。如果他们不看好前景，他们就会卖出股票，价格下跌。上市公司尽力把股价推高，因为这样可以得到更多资金或减少负债。公司高层的奖金是和股价紧密联系的。
Fundamental values； especially earnings； drive prices in the long run； but John Maynard Keynes； the famous economist and a canny stock picker； retorted “In the long run we’re all dead。” Markets are full of cats and dogs； stocks of unprofitable panies that at some point fly through the roof； defying gravity。 Stocks of sexy new industries； such as biotechnology or the Internet； can fly on the expectations of future earnings rather than on any real operating records。 Each dog has its day in the sun before reality sets in。 Stocks of profitable； well…run panies may drift sideways to down。 The market reflects the sum total of what every participant knows； thinks； or feels about a stock； and a declining price means large holders are selling。 The essential rule in any market is “It’s OK to buy cheap； but not OK to buy down。” Don’t buy a stock that’s trending lower； even if it looks like a bargain。 If you like its fundamentals； use technical analysis to confirm that the trend is up。
内在价值，尤其是赢利能力，长期会推动股价上涨，但是著名的经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯，也是精明的炒股人士，他说：“长期而言，我们都是死的。”市场到处都是低价股票，不赚钱公司的股票有时会飞破屋顶。新兴行业的股票，比如生化或互联网的股票，是预期未来有巨大的收益而飞涨的，不是根据生产纪录涨的。在现实发生之前，任何股票都有表现的时候。赚钱的公司，运转良好的公司，他们的股票可能会横盘下跌。市场反映了每个参与者的知识、思想或者感觉，下跌的价格意味着大户在卖。任何市场的关键原则是：“买便宜的没问题，但不要买下跌的。” 即使看起来很便宜，也不要买下跌趋势的股票。如果你喜欢它的基本面，要利用技术分析来确认是否趋势向上。
Warren Buffett； one of the most successful investors in America； is fond of saying that when you buy a stock； you bee a partner of a manic…depressive fellow he calls Mr。 Market。 Each day Mr。 Market runs up and offers either to buy you out of business or to sell you his share。 Most of the time you should ignore him because the man is psychotic； but occasionally Mr。 Market bees so terribly depressed that he offers you his share for a song … and that’s when you should buy。 At other times he bees so manic that he offers an insane price for your share … and that’s when you should sell。
沃伦·巴菲特是美国最成功的投资者之一，他喜欢说，如果你买股票，你会认识一个性情变化无常的人，他自称市场先生，你会成为他的伙伴。市场先生每天出现，要么买你的股票，要么卖股票给你。一般情况下，你不要理他，因为他有神经质，但是偶尔市场先生会极度伤感，他让你去买他的股票——这时你应该买。其它时间他很疯狂，报价也很离谱——这时你应该卖。
This idea is brilliant in its simplicity； but hard to implement。 Mr。 Market sweeps most of us off our feet because his mood is so contagious。 Most people want to sell when Mr。 Market is depressed and buy when he is manic。 We need to keep our sanity。 We need objective criteria to de