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We need objective criteria to decide how high is too high and how low is too low。 Buffett makes his decisions on the basis of fundamental analysis and a fantastic gut feel。 Traders can use technical analysis。
这个思想讲起来容易，做起来难。市场先生的情绪很具有传染性，所以他很容易把我们扫倒。当市场先生沮丧时，大多数人想卖；当市场先生疯狂时，大多数人想买。我们要保持清醒。我们要有一个客观的标准，以确定什么是太高，什么是太低。巴菲特利用基本面分析和自己神奇的内心感觉来做决定。交易者可以使用技术分析。
Speaking of gut feel； this is something that an investor or a trader may develop after years of successful experience。 What beginners call gut feel is usually an urge to gamble； and I tell them they have no right to a gut feel。
谈到内心感觉，投资者和交易者需要经过多年成功的经验才会有内心感觉。新手的内心感觉就是赌博的冲动，我告诉他们，他们并没有权利谈自己的内心感觉。
What stocks should we trade？ There are more than 10；000 of them in the United States； with even more abroad。 Peter Lynch； a highly successful money manager； writes that he only buys stocks in panies that are so simple that an idiot could run them … because eventually one will。 But Lynch is an investor； not a trader。 Stocks of many panies with little fundamental value can embark on fantastic runs； making heaps of money for bullish traders before collapsing and making just as much money for the bears。
交易哪个股票呢？美国有10000多个股票，国外的更多。彼得·林奇是一个成功的基金经理，他说如果一个公司很简单，连傻瓜都能管理好，那么他就会买这个公司的股票——因为肯定有人能管理好。但林奇是投资者，不是交易者。很多公司，基本面不怎么好，但是股票能狂涨，股价崩溃前能让做多的交易者赚到很多钱，同样下跌时也能赚到这么多钱。
The stock market offers a wealth of choices； even after we cut out illiquid or flat stocks。 You open a business newspaper； and stories of fantastic rallies and breathtaking declines leap at you from the pages。 Should you jump on the bandwagon and trade stocks in the news？ Have they moved too far from the gate？ How do you find future leaders？ Having to make so many choices stresses beginners。 They spread themselves thin； jumping between stocks instead of focusing on a few and learning to trade them well。 Newbies who cannot confidently trade a single stock go looking for scanning software that will let them track thousands。
即使不考虑那些不活跃的，交易平淡的股票，股市还是提供了致富的机会。你随便打开一张报纸，都会看到暴涨或者暴跌的股票故事。你会不会根据新闻的线索见风使舵来炒股呢？他们是不是已经跑的很远了？你如何发现未来的领头羊？太多的选择让新手感到压力。他们不知道重点研究几个股票，也不知道如何做好交易，他们什么都学，以致什么都没学好。新手对一个股票没有把握，他就寻找软件，让软件帮他同时跟踪几千个股票。
In addition to stocks； you can choose from their kissing cousins； mutual funds； called unit trusts in Europe。 Long…term investors tend to put money into diversified funds which hold hundreds of stocks。 Traders tend to focus on sector funds that let them trade specific sectors of the economy or entire countries。 You pick a favorite sector or country and leave individual stock selection to the supposedly hot…shot analysts laboring at those funds。
除了股票，你还可以选择相关的共同基金。长线投资者喜欢把钱投入到各种各样的基金，因为基金会买几百种股票。交易者关注行业基金，因为他们可以针对经济的特点交易，也可以选择投资到某个国家的基金。你可以选择喜欢的经济面或者国家，让著名的基金分析师帮你选股票吧。
Choosing a winning stock or fund is a lot harder than listening to tips at a party or scanning headlines in a newspaper。 A trader must develop a set of fundamental or technical search parameters； have the discipline to follow his system； and spread a safety net of money management under his account。 We will delve into all three areas in Part 2。
选择一个赚钱的股票或基金比听消息要难多了，也比研究报纸难多了。交易者必须形成自己的一套基本面分析或技术面分析的参数，要遵守自己的系统，还要有出色的资金管理。我们会在第2部分详细讨论这些问题。
WHERE DO I GO FROM HERE？ How to Buy Stocks by Louis Engel is the best introductory book for stock investors and traders。 The author died years ago； but the publisher updates the book every few years … be sure to get the latest edition。
能告诉我如何开始吗？路易斯·安吉尔写的《股票指南》（张轶注：国内译名）是最好的入门书。作者在几年前死了，但是出版社会每过几年就更新一次——一定要买最新的版本。
FUTURES
期货
Futures look dangerous at first … nine out of ten traders go bust in their first year。 As you look closer； it bees clear that the danger is not in futures but in the people who trade them。 Futures offer traders some of the best profit opportunities； but the dangers are mensurate with rewards。 Futures make it easy for gamblers to shoot themselves in the foot； or higher。 A trader with good money management skills needn’t fear futures。
期货一开始看起来很可怕——10个人里面有9个会在第1年被淘汰。当你看近点，你会发现期货并没有风险，而是交易的人有风险。对有些交易者来说，期货提供了最好的赚钱机会，但是风险总是伴随着回报。期货很容易让赌徒开枪打中自己的脚，又或者是打的太远。如果一个交易者有很好的资金管理，他不必害怕期货。
Futures used to be called modities； the irreducible building blocks of the economy。 Old…timers used to say that a modity was something that hurt when you dropped it on your foot … gold； sugar； wheat； crude oil。 In recent decades many financial instruments began to trade like modities … currencies； bonds； stock indexes。 The term futures includes traditional modities along with new financial instruments。
过去期货叫商品，是经济中不可缺少的元素。过去人们喜欢说商品就是你掉在地上砸自己脚的东西——黄金，糖，小麦，原油。最近几十年，很多金融工具开始出现，它们类似商品——外汇，债券，股指期货。期货这个说法包括了传统的商品和新的金融工具。
A future is a contract to deliver or accept delivery of a specific quantity of a modity by a certain date。 A futures contract is binding on both buyer and seller。 In options the buyer has the right but not an obligation to take delivery。 If you buy a call or a put； you can walk away if you like。 In futures； you have no such luxury。 If the market goes against you； you have to add money to your margin or get out of your trade at a loss。 Futures are stricter than options but are priced better for traders。
期货就是一个合约，这份合约规定在未来的确定日期交割确定数量的商品。一份期货合约同时绑定了买家和卖家。如果是期权，买家有权利接受交割，但不是义务。如果你买了看涨期权或者看跌期权，你也可以随时出场。但是期货不同。如果市场对你不利，你需要追加保证金，或者是止损出场。期货比期权严格，但是价格适合交易者。
Buying a stock makes you a part owner of a pany。 When you buy a futures contract you don’t own anything； but enter into a binding contract for a future purchase of merchandise； be it a carload of wheat or a sheaf of Treasury bonds。 The person who sells you that contract assumes the obligation to deliver。 The money you pay for a stock goes to the seller； but in futures your margin money stays with the broker as a security； ensuring you’ll accept delivery when your contract es due。 They used to call margin money honest money。 While in stocks you pay interest for margin borrowing； in futures you can collect interest on your margin。
买入股票，你就成了一个公司的拥有者。当你买入期货合约时，你并不拥有什么，只是买了一个合约，合约规�